Bay Area losing residents
What happened
IRS migration data show the Bay Area lost a net of over 50,000 residents since 2020, with most core counties posting population declines while a few like Santa Clara and Alameda saw moderate in‑migration. That demographic churn shifts where boards and recruiters find experienced directors—creating demand both for deep local networks and for outside perspectives tied to growing markets. (sfchronicle.com)
Why it matters
New IRS migration files for 2022–23 show every Bay Area county recorded more domestic departures than arrivals that year; San Francisco alone had about 6,500 more residents leave for other U.S. counties than arrive in 2022–23. (sfchronicle.com) Most San Franciscans who moved between 2020 and 2023 stayed inside California: of the top 10 destination counties for people leaving San Francisco, nine were in California and six were elsewhere in the Bay Area. (sfchronicle.com) The IRS migration dataset is built by comparing the mailing address on consecutive year individual income tax returns (Form 1040) to identify moves, so it captures year‑to‑year county inflows and outflows but only for filers with returns in both years — a conservative measure of migration. (irs.gov) The Chronicle notes the 2023 release was delayed by a federal shutdown, and that the county‑level tables reflect those address‑change counts rather than short‑term travel or non‑filers. (sfchronicle.com) Analyses of the same IRS flows show a concentrated loss of taxable income in big urban counties: researchers measured more than $68 billion in lost adjusted gross income (AGI, the total taxable income reported on returns) from large urban counties between 2020 and 2021, and San Francisco’s tax base contracted by roughly $8 billion in that window — a shift that reduces the local pool of high‑earning households that typically produce many board candidates. (eig.org) (route-fifty.com) County patterns are uneven: some suburban Bay Area counties swung from modest gains before 2020 to sizable net losses during the pandemic (Contra Costa recorded net outflows of roughly 7,100 in 2020–21 and about 7,500 in 2021–22, per the Chronicle), while regional trackers report that stronger foreign immigration and smaller domestic losses in 2023 produced a net population uptick for the Bay Area that year. (sfchronicle.com) (bayareaeconomy.org) Executive and board search firms operating in the Bay Area already emphasize national and multi‑region sourcing and maintain networks of affiliated partners and national desk coverage, a structure that lets them supply director candidates from outside the nine counties when local high‑earner and executive pools thin. (reactionsearch.com) (boardroompulse.com)
Key numbers
- IRS migration data show the Bay Area lost a net of over 50,000 residents since 2020, with most core counties posting population declines while a few like Santa Clara and Alameda saw moderate in‑migration.
- (sfchronicle.com) New IRS migration files for 2022–23 show every Bay Area county recorded more domestic departures than arrivals that year; San Francisco alone had about 6,500 more residents leave for other U.S.
- (sfchronicle.com) Most San Franciscans who moved between 2020 and 2023 stayed inside California: of the top 10 destination counties for people leaving San Francisco, nine were in California and six were elsewhere in the Bay Area.
- (irs.gov) The Chronicle notes the 2023 release was delayed by a federal shutdown, and that the county‑level tables reflect those address‑change counts rather than short‑term travel or non‑filers.
Quick answers
What happened in Bay Area losing residents?
IRS migration data show the Bay Area lost a net of over 50,000 residents since 2020, with most core counties posting population declines while a few like Santa Clara and Alameda saw moderate in‑migration. That demographic churn shifts where boards and recruiters find experienced directors—creating demand both for deep local networks and for outside perspectives tied to growing markets. (sfchronicle.com)
Why does Bay Area losing residents matter?
New IRS migration files for 2022–23 show every Bay Area county recorded more domestic departures than arrivals that year; San Francisco alone had about 6,500 more residents leave for other U.S. counties than arrive in 2022–23. (sfchronicle.com) Most San Franciscans who moved between 2020 and 2023 stayed inside California: of the top 10 destination counties for people leaving San Francisco, nine were in California and six were elsewhere in the Bay Area. (sfchronicle.com) The IRS migration dataset is built by comparing the mailing address on consecutive year individual income tax returns (Form 1040) to identify moves, so it captures year‑to‑year county inflows and outflows but only for filers with returns in both years — a conservative measure of migration. (irs.gov) The Chronicle notes the 2023 release was delayed by a federal shutdown, and that the county‑level tables reflect those address‑change counts rather than short‑term travel or non‑filers. (sfchronicle.com) Analyses of the same IRS flows show a concentrated loss of taxable income in big urban counties: researchers measured more than $68 billion in lost adjusted gross income (AGI, the total taxable income reported on returns) from large urban counties between 2020 and 2021, and San Francisco’s tax base contracted by roughly $8 billion in that window — a shift that reduces the local pool of high‑earning households that typically produce many board candidates. (eig.org) (route-fifty.com) County patterns are uneven: some suburban Bay Area counties swung from modest gains before 2020 to sizable net losses during the pandemic (Contra Costa recorded net outflows of roughly 7,100 in 2020–21 and about 7,500 in 2021–22, per the Chronicle), while regional trackers report that stronger foreign immigration and smaller domestic losses in 2023 produced a net population uptick for the Bay Area that year. (sfchronicle.com) (bayareaeconomy.org) Executive and board search firms operating in the Bay Area already emphasize national and multi‑region sourcing and maintain networks of affiliated partners and national desk coverage, a structure that lets them supply director candidates from outside the nine counties when local high‑earner and executive pools thin. (reactionsearch.com) (boardroompulse.com)
