Retail sales forecast rises
What happened
The National Retail Federation projects U.S. retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026, a pace above the pre‑pandemic decade average. That optimism underpins continued retailer investment in stores, staffing, and promotions despite softer consumer confidence. (hardwareretailing.com)
Why it matters
The NRF said its 2026 outlook was produced using a newly enhanced forecasting model developed in partnership with Oxford Economics and announced the projection in a March 18, 2026 press release. (nrf.com) The projection was unveiled during NRF’s sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, which the organization describes as an examination of American consumer and retail health. (nrf.com) NRF contrasted the 2026 outlook with a 3.6% average annual sales growth over the prior 10 years when excluding the pandemic years 2020–2022. (nrf.com) NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews warned that “renewed tensions in the Middle East” add uncertainty while noting higher‑income households are expected to account for the bulk of spending gains. (nrf.com) NRF flagged the Working Families Tax Cut Act as a source of larger refunds that should boost activity in the first half of the year and projected inflation to remain elevated through midyear before easing in Q3. (nrf.com) The forecast anticipates softer non‑farm employment growth during the year but projects the unemployment rate will remain below 4.5%. (nrf.com) Industry coverage says NRF’s upbeat assessment has underpinned retailer moves to continue investing in physical stores, add staff and run promotions even as consumer‑sentiment measures soften. (hardwareretailing.com) The NRF‑tracked sales total excludes purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, meaning the forecast focuses on store‑based and online retail categories. (talkbusiness.net)
Key numbers
- retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026, a pace above the pre‑pandemic decade average.
- (hardwareretailing.com) The NRF said its 2026 outlook was produced using a newly enhanced forecasting model developed in partnership with Oxford Economics and announced the projection in a March 18, 2026 press release.
- (nrf.com) NRF contrasted the 2026 outlook with a 3.6% average annual sales growth over the prior 10 years when excluding the pandemic years 2020–2022.
- (nrf.com) NRF flagged the Working Families Tax Cut Act as a source of larger refunds that should boost activity in the first half of the year and projected inflation to remain elevated through midyear before easing in Q3.
What happens next
- (nrf.com) NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews warned that “renewed tensions in the Middle East” add uncertainty while noting higher‑income households are expected to account for the bulk of spending gains.
- (nrf.com) The forecast anticipates softer non‑farm employment growth during the year but projects the unemployment rate will remain below 4.5%.
- retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026, a pace above the pre‑pandemic decade average.
Quick answers
What happened in Retail sales forecast rises?
The National Retail Federation projects U.S. retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026, a pace above the pre‑pandemic decade average. That optimism underpins continued retailer investment in stores, staffing, and promotions despite softer consumer confidence. (hardwareretailing.com)
Why does Retail sales forecast rises matter?
The NRF said its 2026 outlook was produced using a newly enhanced forecasting model developed in partnership with Oxford Economics and announced the projection in a March 18, 2026 press release. (nrf.com) The projection was unveiled during NRF’s sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, which the organization describes as an examination of American consumer and retail health. (nrf.com) NRF contrasted the 2026 outlook with a 3.6% average annual sales growth over the prior 10 years when excluding the pandemic years 2020–2022. (nrf.com) NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews warned that “renewed tensions in the Middle East” add uncertainty while noting higher‑income households are expected to account for the bulk of spending gains. (nrf.com) NRF flagged the Working Families Tax Cut Act as a source of larger refunds that should boost activity in the first half of the year and projected inflation to remain elevated through midyear before easing in Q3. (nrf.com) The forecast anticipates softer non‑farm employment growth during the year but projects the unemployment rate will remain below 4.5%. (nrf.com) Industry coverage says NRF’s upbeat assessment has underpinned retailer moves to continue investing in physical stores, add staff and run promotions even as consumer‑sentiment measures soften. (hardwareretailing.com) The NRF‑tracked sales total excludes purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, meaning the forecast focuses on store‑based and online retail categories. (talkbusiness.net)
