India's GDP Growth Faces Headwinds

Why it matters

Nomura's revised forecast cites escalating tensions in West Asia as a primary reason for the lowered projection. They anticipate higher energy costs will likely push India's inflation to 4.5% and the current account deficit to 1.6%. The conflict's impact extends beyond logistical transport issues, raising concerns about oil production and storage capacity in the region. Iraq and Kuwait are already reducing output due to storage limitations. CRISIL acknowledges these geopolitical risks, noting that global trade tensions and tariff actions add to the "squally" external environment. They suggest India has buffers but aren't shielded from large, prolonged shocks. Nomura also points out that rising crude prices and potential energy disruptions could negatively affect India's fiscal deficit. However, they also see potential upsides, such as increased capital flows and export recovery.

Key numbers

• CRISIL projects India's FY27 GDP growth at 7.1%, but Nomura cut its estimate to 7% amid West Asia conflict.
• They anticipate higher energy costs will likely push India's inflation to 4.5% and the current account deficit to 1.6%.

What happens next

• They anticipate higher energy costs will likely push India's inflation to 4.5% and the current account deficit to 1.6%.
• Nomura also points out that rising crude prices and potential energy disruptions could negatively affect India's fiscal deficit.

Sources

• CRISIL projects
• Nomura cut

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