Fed Rate Decision Looms Amid Inflation

Why it matters

The market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. CME FedWatch indicates a greater than 92% probability of rates remaining unchanged. The policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on March 18, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Updated economic projections and the dot plot will be closely watched. The dot plot maps where each FOMC member expects rates to go. Currently, the median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. Geopolitical risks, particularly the conflict involving Iran, continue to impact oil prices. Tensions have added a $4 to $10 per barrel risk premium. Military action could trigger major price spikes, though diplomatic efforts might ease concerns.

Key numbers

• The Federal Reserve meets March 17-18, facing persistent inflation (2.4% in February) and geopolitical instability impacting oil prices.
• The market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%.
• CME FedWatch indicates a greater than 92% probability of rates remaining unchanged.
• The policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on March 18, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.

What happens next

• The market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%.
• The policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on March 18, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
• Updated economic projections and the dot plot will be closely watched.

Sources

• Reserve meets

Quick answers