AI firms driving leases
What happened
- CoStar data shows AI companies are a growing share of large office deals across gateway markets. - AI tenants represent about 20% of major U.S. office leases and roughly 50% of San Francisco deals. - That concentration suggests a narrow cohort of AI occupiers is steering much of current leasing activity. (x.com)
Why it matters
Artificial intelligence companies have become a main source of big office leases in U.S. gateway markets, with San Francisco the clearest example. (costar.com) CoStar and CBRE data cited by CoStar show AI and tech companies generated about 20% of commercial leasing volume in the country’s largest cities last year, more than any other industry. In the San Francisco Bay Area, AI firms accounted for half of the major leases signed since the start of 2026. (costar.com) The list of tenants is short and familiar: OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia and Databricks are among the companies CoStar identified as major space takers. CoStar said those firms and peers have pushed their combined office footprint past 5 million square feet, with projections for at least 15 million square feet within four years. (costar.com) That demand is landing in a market still carrying deep post-pandemic scars. San Francisco office space was still about 24% empty or available for lease in January 2026, according to CoStar data reported by The Real Deal. (therealdeal.com) The rebound is also uneven. CoStar reported that average lease sizes in San Francisco remain about 19% smaller than before the pandemic, even as tenant demand approaches historic highs and touring activity rises. (costar.com; costar.com) Nationally, office leasing is improving beyond AI alone. Tenants signed roughly 120 million square feet of new leases in the first quarter of 2026, up 25% from a year earlier and the highest quarterly total since 2018, according to a CoStar report cited by Bisnow. (bisnow.com) But the composition of that recovery has shifted toward a narrow group of fast-growing occupiers. CoStar said smaller deals are driving much of the national increase, while landlords are concentrating on newer Class A buildings that can win tenants looking for room to expand. (bisnow.com; costar.com) Several recent Bay Area deals show the scale. Anthropic leased a 466,000-square-foot tower at 300 Howard in San Francisco in February 2026, OpenAI leased a 450,000-square-foot campus in Mountain View in March 2026, and Databricks opened a 305,000-square-foot Sunnyvale office in July 2025. (rebusinessonline.com; markets.financialcontent.com; databricks.com) CBRE had flagged this pattern earlier. In its November 2024 Tech-30 report, the brokerage said artificial intelligence was emerging as a key future catalyst for office demand in major tech markets, with San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Toronto and Manhattan standing out. (cbre.com) For landlords, the immediate effect is simple: a handful of AI tenants are filling space that many other office users still do not want. For the broader market, the same CoStar reporting says the open question is whether AI creates enough new jobs and office demand to offset the space cuts that automation could bring elsewhere. (costar.com)
Key numbers
- AI tenants represent about 20% of major U.S.
- office leases and roughly 50% of San Francisco deals.
- (costar.com) CoStar and CBRE data cited by CoStar show AI and tech companies generated about 20% of commercial leasing volume in the country’s largest cities last year, more than any other industry.
- In the San Francisco Bay Area, AI firms accounted for half of the major leases signed since the start of 2026.
What happens next
- CoStar said smaller deals are driving much of the national increase, while landlords are concentrating on newer Class A buildings that can win tenants looking for room to expand.
- For the broader market, the same CoStar reporting says the open question is whether AI creates enough new jobs and office demand to offset the space cuts that automation could bring elsewhere.
Quick answers
What happened in AI firms driving leases?
CoStar data shows AI companies are a growing share of large office deals across gateway markets. AI tenants represent about 20% of major U.S. office leases and roughly 50% of San Francisco deals. That concentration suggests a narrow cohort of AI occupiers is steering much of current leasing activity. (x.com)
Why does AI firms driving leases matter?
Artificial intelligence companies have become a main source of big office leases in U.S. gateway markets, with San Francisco the clearest example. (costar.com) CoStar and CBRE data cited by CoStar show AI and tech companies generated about 20% of commercial leasing volume in the country’s largest cities last year, more than any other industry. In the San Francisco Bay Area, AI firms accounted for half of the major leases signed since the start of 2026. (costar.com) The list of tenants is short and familiar: OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia and Databricks are among the companies CoStar identified as major space takers. CoStar said those firms and peers have pushed their combined office footprint past 5 million square feet, with projections for at least 15 million square feet within four years. (costar.com) That demand is landing in a market still carrying deep post-pandemic scars. San Francisco office space was still about 24% empty or available for lease in January 2026, according to CoStar data reported by The Real Deal. (therealdeal.com) The rebound is also uneven. CoStar reported that average lease sizes in San Francisco remain about 19% smaller than before the pandemic, even as tenant demand approaches historic highs and touring activity rises. (costar.com; costar.com) Nationally, office leasing is improving beyond AI alone. Tenants signed roughly 120 million square feet of new leases in the first quarter of 2026, up 25% from a year earlier and the highest quarterly total since 2018, according to a CoStar report cited by Bisnow. (bisnow.com) But the composition of that recovery has shifted toward a narrow group of fast-growing occupiers. CoStar said smaller deals are driving much of the national increase, while landlords are concentrating on newer Class A buildings that can win tenants looking for room to expand. (bisnow.com; costar.com) Several recent Bay Area deals show the scale. Anthropic leased a 466,000-square-foot tower at 300 Howard in San Francisco in February 2026, OpenAI leased a 450,000-square-foot campus in Mountain View in March 2026, and Databricks opened a 305,000-square-foot Sunnyvale office in July 2025. (rebusinessonline.com; markets.financialcontent.com; databricks.com) CBRE had flagged this pattern earlier. In its November 2024 Tech-30 report, the brokerage said artificial intelligence was emerging as a key future catalyst for office demand in major tech markets, with San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Toronto and Manhattan standing out. (cbre.com) For landlords, the immediate effect is simple: a handful of AI tenants are filling space that many other office users still do not want. For the broader market, the same CoStar reporting says the open question is whether AI creates enough new jobs and office demand to offset the space cuts that automation could bring elsewhere. (costar.com)
