Hail Risk: $30B Event Flagged
What happened
Raizner Slania highlighted a looming US hail event that could top $30 billion in insured losses — a single-number projection that will sharpen underwriting, catastrophe modelling and claims-readiness conversations. Expect carriers and reinsurers to revisit exposure maps and reserving for severe-convective storm clusters. (x.com)
Why it matters
Cotality’s Severe Convective Storm Risk Report was published March 24, 2026 and finds 43.5 million U.S. properties are at moderate or greater risk from damaging hail, representing $17.84 trillion in reconstruction cost value (cotality.com). The report records 142 days with damaging hail in 2025 and says hailstones two inches or larger struck more than 600,000 homes in 2025, impacting roughly $177 billion in reconstruction cost value. (cotality.com). Cotality’s probabilistic modeling shows an extreme 1‑in‑500‑year severe convective storm scenario where hail could account for about 80% of SCS peril losses — roughly $58 billion of an estimated $71 billion in SCS insured losses. (cotality.com). State-level exposure in 2025 concentrated in Texas, where more than 235,000 homes experienced damaging hail, and the Texas Triangle (Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio) holds over $2.2 trillion in exposed reconstruction cost value at moderate or greater hail risk. (cotality.com). The report also quantifies overlapping perils, estimating more than 76 million U.S. homes face moderate or greater tornado risk, representing over $27 trillion in reconstruction cost value. (cotality.com). Swiss Re Institute’s sigma analysis shows secondary perils (wildfires, severe convective storms and floods) drove a record 92% of global insured natural catastrophe losses in 2025, with SCS producing about $51 billion of the $107 billion total insured losses that year. (swissre.com). Major trade outlets including HousingWire, Insurance Business and Artemis ran stories summarizing Cotality’s March 24, 2026 findings and highlighting hail’s reclassification from a “secondary” to a major catastrophe loss driver. ( ).
Key numbers
- Raizner Slania highlighted a looming US hail event that could top $30 billion in insured losses — a single-number projection that will sharpen underwriting, catastrophe modelling and claims-readiness conversations.
- (x.com) Cotality’s Severe Convective Storm Risk Report was published March 24, 2026 and finds 43.5 million U.S.
- properties are at moderate or greater risk from damaging hail, representing $17.84 trillion in reconstruction cost value (cotality.com).
- The report records 142 days with damaging hail in 2025 and says hailstones two inches or larger struck more than 600,000 homes in 2025, impacting roughly $177 billion in reconstruction cost value.
What happens next
- Cotality’s probabilistic modeling shows an extreme 1‑in‑500‑year severe convective storm scenario where hail could account for about 80% of SCS peril losses — roughly $58 billion of an estimated $71 billion in SCS insured losses.
- Raizner Slania highlighted a looming US hail event that could top $30 billion in insured losses — a single-number projection that will sharpen underwriting, catastrophe modelling and claims-readiness conversations.
- Expect carriers and reinsurers to revisit exposure maps and reserving for severe-convective storm clusters.
Sources
Quick answers
What happened in Hail Risk: $30B Event Flagged?
Raizner Slania highlighted a looming US hail event that could top $30 billion in insured losses — a single-number projection that will sharpen underwriting, catastrophe modelling and claims-readiness conversations. Expect carriers and reinsurers to revisit exposure maps and reserving for severe-convective storm clusters. (x.com)
Why does Hail Risk: $30B Event Flagged matter?
Cotality’s Severe Convective Storm Risk Report was published March 24, 2026 and finds 43.5 million U.S. properties are at moderate or greater risk from damaging hail, representing $17.84 trillion in reconstruction cost value (cotality.com). The report records 142 days with damaging hail in 2025 and says hailstones two inches or larger struck more than 600,000 homes in 2025, impacting roughly $177 billion in reconstruction cost value. (cotality.com). Cotality’s probabilistic modeling shows an extreme 1‑in‑500‑year severe convective storm scenario where hail could account for about 80% of SCS peril losses — roughly $58 billion of an estimated $71 billion in SCS insured losses. (cotality.com). State-level exposure in 2025 concentrated in Texas, where more than 235,000 homes experienced damaging hail, and the Texas Triangle (Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio) holds over $2.2 trillion in exposed reconstruction cost value at moderate or greater hail risk. (cotality.com). The report also quantifies overlapping perils, estimating more than 76 million U.S. homes face moderate or greater tornado risk, representing over $27 trillion in reconstruction cost value. (cotality.com). Swiss Re Institute’s sigma analysis shows secondary perils (wildfires, severe convective storms and floods) drove a record 92% of global insured natural catastrophe losses in 2025, with SCS producing about $51 billion of the $107 billion total insured losses that year. (swissre.com). Major trade outlets including HousingWire, Insurance Business and Artemis ran stories summarizing Cotality’s March 24, 2026 findings and highlighting hail’s reclassification from a “secondary” to a major catastrophe loss driver. ( ).
