Conference Board confidence drops 12.3 points

Published May 27, 2026 by The Daily Scout

- The Conference Board said on May 26 that U.S. consumer confidence fell in May, as households reported weaker views on current conditions. - The Expectations Index stood at 74.4 in May, below the Conference Board’s 80 threshold that has often preceded a recession. - The Conference Board said responses were collected May 1-19; its next monthly consumer confidence release will follow in late June.

Why it matters

The Conference Board said on May 26 that its U.S. Consumer Confidence Index slipped 0.7 point to 93.1 in May, ending three straight monthly gains as households reported softer views on business conditions and the labor market. The Present Situation Index fell 3.2 points to 121.2, while the Expectations Index rose 1.0 point to 74.4, the business group said in its monthly release. The survey period ran from May 1 through May 19. Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said the decline reflected “the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East” as higher prices weighed on consumers. ### Why does the May reading matter if the headline move was small? The Expectations Index came in at 74.4 in May, and The Conference Board says a reading below 80 “typically signals a recession ahead.” That left the forward-looking gauge below that threshold for a fifth straight month, even after a modest increase from April. The measure tracks consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business conditions and labor-market conditions. (conference-board.org) Dana M. Peterson said two of the three expectations components improved slightly in May, covering business conditions and the labor market, while expected household income was “slightly less positive.” The mix suggests households were still uneasy about their own finances even as some broader outlook measures stabilized. (conference-board.org) ### What did consumers say about current conditions? The Present Situation Index fell to 121.2 from 124.4 in April, according to The Conference Board. Net views of current business conditions — the share saying conditions were good minus bad — dropped 2.8 percentage points to positive 1.4%. The labor-market differential — the share saying jobs were plentiful minus those saying jobs were hard to get — edged down 0.6 percentage point to positive 6.9%. (conference-board.org) The Conference Board said those readings showed consumers were “moderately less positive” about both current business conditions and the current labor market than a month earlier. That deterioration in present conditions outweighed the small gain in expectations and pulled the overall index lower. ### What did The Conference Board blame for the pressure on sentiment? (conference-board.org) The Conference Board said the May survey period overlapped with an ongoing Middle East conflict that was “placing upward pressure on prices globally.” Peterson said confidence “edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified.” The release tied the softer reading to rising consumer concern over price pressures rather than to a single labor-market shock. (conference-board.org) Scotsman Guide, citing the same release in a May 26 report, said rising costs for gasoline, groceries and mortgage rates were darkening the outlook for U.S. consumers and prospective homebuyers. In that report, PowerPay founder and CEO Mike Petrakis said repeated economic disruptions had worn consumers down. (conference-board.org) ### Which groups looked stronger and which looked weaker? Consumers aged 35 to 54 posted a small increase in confidence in May, The Conference Board said, while confidence trended lower for both younger and older consumers on a month-over-month and six-month moving-average basis. Higher-income groups showed an upward trend on a six-month moving-average basis. By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while Independents were the only group to record a month-over-month uptick. (scotsmanguide.com) The Conference Board also said confidence improved for the Silent Generation but was little changed or lower among other generations. Those details pointed to uneven sentiment across age, income and political groups even within a broadly softer report. ### When is the next update due? The Conference Board said the cutoff date for the preliminary May results was May 19. (conference-board.org) The group publishes the Consumer Confidence Survey monthly, and the next release is expected in late June based on its regular schedule.

Key numbers

The Conference Board said on May 26 that U.S.
The Expectations Index stood at 74.4 in May, below the Conference Board’s 80 threshold that has often preceded a recession.
The Conference Board said responses were collected May 1-19; its next monthly consumer confidence release will follow in late June.
The Conference Board said on May 26 that its U.S.

What happens next

The Conference Board said on May 26 that its U.S.
Consumer Confidence Index slipped 0.7 point to 93.1 in May, ending three straight monthly gains as households reported softer views on business conditions and the labor market.
The survey period ran from May 1 through May 19.

Sources

Quick answers

What happened in Conference Board confidence drops 12.3 points?

The Conference Board said on May 26 that U.S. consumer confidence fell in May, as households reported weaker views on current conditions. The Expectations Index stood at 74.4 in May, below the Conference Board’s 80 threshold that has often preceded a recession. The Conference Board said responses were collected May 1-19; its next monthly consumer confidence release will follow in late June.

Why does Conference Board confidence drops 12.3 points matter?

The Conference Board said on May 26 that its U.S. Consumer Confidence Index slipped 0.7 point to 93.1 in May, ending three straight monthly gains as households reported softer views on business conditions and the labor market. The Present Situation Index fell 3.2 points to 121.2, while the Expectations Index rose 1.0 point to 74.4, the business group said in its monthly release. The survey period ran from May 1 through May 19. Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said the decline reflected “the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East” as higher prices weighed on consumers. Why does the May reading matter if the headline move was small? The Expectations Index came in at 74.4 in May, and The Conference Board says a reading below 80 “typically signals a recession ahead.” That left the forward-looking gauge below that threshold for a fifth straight month, even after a modest increase from April. The measure tracks consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business conditions and labor-market conditions. (conference-board.org) Dana M. Peterson said two of the three expectations components improved slightly in May, covering business conditions and the labor market, while expected household income was “slightly less positive.” The mix suggests households were still uneasy about their own finances even as some broader outlook measures stabilized. (conference-board.org) What did consumers say about current conditions? The Present Situation Index fell to 121.2 from 124.4 in April, according to The Conference Board. Net views of current business conditions — the share saying conditions were good minus bad — dropped 2.8 percentage points to positive 1.4%. The labor-market differential — the share saying jobs were plentiful minus those saying jobs were hard to get — edged down 0.6 percentage point to positive 6.9%. (conference-board.org) The Conference Board said those readings showed consumers were “moderately less positive” about both current business conditions and the current labor market than a month earlier. That deterioration in present conditions outweighed the small gain in expectations and pulled the overall index lower. What did The Conference Board blame for the pressure on sentiment? (conference-board.org) The Conference Board said the May survey period overlapped with an ongoing Middle East conflict that was “placing upward pressure on prices globally.” Peterson said confidence “edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified.” The release tied the softer reading to rising consumer concern over price pressures rather than to a single labor-market shock. (conference-board.org) Scotsman Guide, citing the same release in a May 26 report, said rising costs for gasoline, groceries and mortgage rates were darkening the outlook for U.S. consumers and prospective homebuyers. In that report, PowerPay founder and CEO Mike Petrakis said repeated economic disruptions had worn consumers down. (conference-board.org) Which groups looked stronger and which looked weaker? Consumers aged 35 to 54 posted a small increase in confidence in May, The Conference Board said, while confidence trended lower for both younger and older consumers on a month-over-month and six-month moving-average basis. Higher-income groups showed an upward trend on a six-month moving-average basis. By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while Independents were the only group to record a month-over-month uptick. (scotsmanguide.com) The Conference Board also said confidence improved for the Silent Generation but was little changed or lower among other generations. Those details pointed to uneven sentiment across age, income and political groups even within a broadly softer report. When is the next update due? The Conference Board said the cutoff date for the preliminary May results was May 19. (conference-board.org) The group publishes the Consumer Confidence Survey monthly, and the next release is expected in late June based on its regular schedule.