BoC expected to hold
What happened
The Bank of Canada is widely forecast to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 18 meeting — driven by weak jobs and a renewed oil shock that could re-ignite inflation, so the central bank is taking a ‘wait-and-see’ stance rather than moving rates now, analysts reported. Markets are pricing a data‑dependent BoC that’s unlikely to cut unless both inflation and employment improve materially.
Why it matters
Canada lost 83,900 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. (www150.statcan.gc.ca) Brent crude traded near US$100 per barrel while WTI topped about US$95 in early March as supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East disruptions pushed prices higher. (finance-commerce.com) Prediction markets put the probability of no policy change at the March 18 meeting at around 97% in some venues, while CORRA/OIS-based dashboards continue to show a dominant hold probability across models. (polymarket.com) The March 18 announcement is a scheduled interest-rate decision that is not paired with a full Monetary Policy Report, meaning the Bank’s statement and updated projections will be more limited than on MPR days. (learnontario.ca) CREA reported national MLS® home sales were down 5.8% month‑over‑month in January 2026, and independent trackers put the national average sale price near $653,000 in early 2026. (crea.ca) Toronto’s MLS® HPI composite benchmark was down 7.9% year‑over‑year in February with an average selling price of $1,008,968, highlighting regional divergence versus national averages. (trreb.ca) Retail channels show best-available 5‑year fixed mortgage offers in the low‑3% range (roughly 3.6–3.9%) while the Big Six banks’ typical 5‑year posted fixed rates sit nearer 4.4–4.6%, and the 5‑year Government of Canada bond yield has climbed to roughly 2.9–3.0% in early March — the bond move that underpins fixed-rate pricing. (wowa.ca)
Key numbers
- Canada lost 83,900 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.
- (www150.statcan.gc.ca) Brent crude traded near US$100 per barrel while WTI topped about US$95 in early March as supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East disruptions pushed prices higher.
- (finance-commerce.com) Prediction markets put the probability of no policy change at the March 18 meeting at around 97% in some venues, while CORRA/OIS-based dashboards continue to show a dominant hold probability across models.
- (polymarket.com) The March 18 announcement is a scheduled interest-rate decision that is not paired with a full Monetary Policy Report, meaning the Bank’s statement and updated projections will be more limited than on MPR days.
What happens next
- (polymarket.com) The March 18 announcement is a scheduled interest-rate decision that is not paired with a full Monetary Policy Report, meaning the Bank’s statement and updated projections will be more limited than on MPR days.
Quick answers
What happened in BoC expected to hold?
The Bank of Canada is widely forecast to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 18 meeting — driven by weak jobs and a renewed oil shock that could re-ignite inflation, so the central bank is taking a ‘wait-and-see’ stance rather than moving rates now, analysts reported. Markets are pricing a data‑dependent BoC that’s unlikely to cut unless both inflation and employment improve materially.
Why does BoC expected to hold matter?
Canada lost 83,900 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. (www150.statcan.gc.ca) Brent crude traded near US$100 per barrel while WTI topped about US$95 in early March as supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East disruptions pushed prices higher. (finance-commerce.com) Prediction markets put the probability of no policy change at the March 18 meeting at around 97% in some venues, while CORRA/OIS-based dashboards continue to show a dominant hold probability across models. (polymarket.com) The March 18 announcement is a scheduled interest-rate decision that is not paired with a full Monetary Policy Report, meaning the Bank’s statement and updated projections will be more limited than on MPR days. (learnontario.ca) CREA reported national MLS® home sales were down 5.8% month‑over‑month in January 2026, and independent trackers put the national average sale price near $653,000 in early 2026. (crea.ca) Toronto’s MLS® HPI composite benchmark was down 7.9% year‑over‑year in February with an average selling price of $1,008,968, highlighting regional divergence versus national averages. (trreb.ca) Retail channels show best-available 5‑year fixed mortgage offers in the low‑3% range (roughly 3.6–3.9%) while the Big Six banks’ typical 5‑year posted fixed rates sit nearer 4.4–4.6%, and the 5‑year Government of Canada bond yield has climbed to roughly 2.9–3.0% in early March — the bond move that underpins fixed-rate pricing. (wowa.ca)
