Reform UK leads local polls at 28%

Reform UK is not just having a good polling week. It is heading into England’s local elections on 7 May 2026 looking like the party most likely to scramble the old two-party map. National polls still vary a bit, but the pattern is clear — Reform is ahead, Labour is weak, and the Conservatives are not recovering fast enough to turn this into a straight Labour-Tory fight. ### What’s the actual news? The immediate story is two-layered. At the national level, recent polls put Reform in first place, with Opinium on 27%, Labour on 19%, and the Conservatives on 18%, while other late-April polls also show Reform in the high 20s. At the local level, YouGov’s new MRP model for the West Midlands says Reform is in contention to win the highest vote share in all 13 councils being fought there. ### Why does the West Midlands matter so much? Because it is classic battleground terrain. These are places where Labour and the Conservatives used to alternate as the main rivals. If Reform can lead there, this is not just a protest vote in a few coastal or rural pockets. It means Nigel Farage’s party is now competing in the kind of mixed, working-class and suburban councils that used to define mainstream English politics. ### How strong is Reform’s position there? Stronger than a vague “surge” headline suggests. YouGov’s model gives Reform double-digit leads in Cannock Chase, Dudley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton, Redditch, Tamworth, and Walsall, plus a six-point lead in Rugby. Overall, the model’s central projection has Reform topping the poll in 11 of the 13 West Midlands councils, with Labour first in the other two. ### Is this just a Labour problem? No — and that is the part that makes this more disruptive. Labour is projected to lose huge chunks of support in multiple councils, but the Conservatives are also taking heavy hits, including projected drops of more than 20 points in some areas. In places like Solihull, the main fight is not Labour versus Reform at all, but Conservatives versus Reform. ### Why are the locals especially dangerous for Labour? Labour has a giant pile of seats to defend. More than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs across England on 7 May, and Labour is defending 2,557 of them. Some forecasts suggest Labour could lose between half and nearly three-quarters of those seats, while one projection cited by The Independent puts losses near 1,900 councillors. ### What does Reform stand to gain? Potentially a lot more than headlines about vote share imply. Britain Elects and PollCheck projections highlighted by The Independent suggest Reform could gain well over 1,000 seats nationally, with one estimate putting it at 2,260 gains. Councils like Sunderland, Thurrock, Wakefield, Barnsley, Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk are among the places flagged as vulnerable to a Reform breakthrough. ### So is 28% the whole story? Not really. The exact topline depends on which poll you pick — recent surveys have Reform between roughly 26% and 28%, with Labour mostly in the high teens or low 20s and the Conservatives close behind. Basically, the important thing is not one magic number. It is that Reform keeps showing up in first place across different pollsters and in local models where seats are actually at stake. ### What’s the bottom line? This looks less like a normal midterm wobble and more like a structural break. Reform is no longer just siphoning votes from the Conservatives. It is now threatening Labour-held councils too — and that is why these local elections matter far beyond town halls.