Tesla deliveries look shaky
Tesla’s delivery picture is wobbling ahead of its April 22 earnings call — company deliveries fell from 1.79 million EVs in 2024 to 1.63 million in 2025, and retail sales in China dropped 16% in Q1 2026 with a 24% fall in March. (barchart.com) The picture is mixed: exports surged 164% even as retail slowed, CPCA data shows March deliveries in China were 56,107 — up 47% from February — and Elon Musk said only “a few hundred” Model S and X remain in stock as those lines near end of life. (electrek.co)
Tesla is heading into its April 22 earnings call with a simple problem: it built more cars than it handed to customers. Tesla said it produced more than 408,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026 and delivered more than 358,000, leaving a gap of roughly 50,000 vehicles in one quarter. (tesla.com) That delivery number matters because Tesla uses deliveries as its closest stand-in for sales. The company’s own first-quarter report on April 2 put Model 3 and Model Y at 345,454 produced and 323,800 delivered, with all other models at 12,881 produced and 34,223 delivered. (tesla.com) The slowdown did not start this quarter. Tesla’s total deliveries for 2025 fell to about 1.64 million vehicles from 1.79 million in 2024, which means last year was already a step down before 2026 even began. (cnbc.com) China is the messiest part of the picture because two different scoreboards are moving in opposite directions. The China Passenger Car Association, which tracks retail sales to local buyers, showed Tesla down 16% in the first quarter of 2026 and down 24% in March even while wholesale shipments looked stronger. (electrek.co) The reason those two scoreboards diverged is exports. Electrek reported that Tesla’s exports from China jumped 164%, which can make factory shipment numbers look healthy even when fewer drivers inside China are actually buying the cars. (electrek.co) Even inside that weak China quarter, March was better than February. China Passenger Car Association data showed 56,107 Tesla deliveries in March 2026, up 47% from February, so the trend inside the quarter was not a straight line down. (news.az) Tesla’s lineup is also changing at the top end. Elon Musk said on April 8 that Tesla had only “a few hundred” Model S sedans and Model X sport utility vehicles left in stock, and Electrek reported earlier in April that custom orders had ended and production was over for both models. (businessinsider.com) (electrek.co) That means Tesla is relying even more heavily on the cheaper Model 3 sedan and Model Y sport utility vehicle to carry volume. In the first quarter of 2026, those two models accounted for 323,800 of Tesla’s 358,023 total deliveries, or more than 90% of the quarter’s total. (tesla.com) Wall Street now has one date circled in red ink. Tesla’s investor relations site lists the next company update for April 22, 2026, and that call now has to explain a year of lower annual deliveries, a first quarter with excess inventory, and a China market where exports are masking weaker local demand. (tesla.com)
