Poll: Greens and Reform surge in London

A new YouGov poll projects Labour will lead in only 15 of London’s 32 boroughs, with the Greens and Reform UK breaking through across the capital. (yougov.com) YouGov said its first London borough-level multilevel regression and post-stratification poll used data from more than 4,500 adults interviewed between March 27 and April 21. The model estimates vote share in every borough, not seats or council control. (yougov.com) In the central projection, Labour tops the vote in 15 councils, down from 21 in 2022; the Conservatives lead in five, the Liberal Democrats in four, the Greens in four and Reform in three. YouGov said neither the Greens nor Reform had previously topped the poll in any London council. (yougov.com) The poll points to Labour’s weakest London local-election showing since 1982, when it won 12 councils. In 2022, Labour controlled 21 of the 32 boroughs after taking Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet from the Conservatives. (independent.co.uk) (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) YouGov said London’s map is now fragmented enough that small swings could flip boroughs in several directions at once. The poll found 10 boroughs where the second-placed party is within two percentage points of first place, plus six more within five points. (yougov.com) The pattern is different by geography. Politico reported Labour officials fear inner-London left voters are drifting to the Greens while outer-borough conservative voters move to Reform, squeezing the party from both sides. (politico.eu) YouGov said Reform is picking up former Conservative support in outer London and making inroads in Labour territory including Barking and Dagenham. The Greens are projected to lead in four Labour-held councils, according to YouGov and Sky News. (yougov.com) (news.sky.com) Mayor Sadiq Khan said he would work “constructively” with any Green- or Reform-run councils that emerge after the May 7 elections. He also warned earlier this month that Labour voters could regret protest votes that hand boroughs to rival parties. (hackneycitizen.co.uk) (article.wn.com) The next test is May 7, when London’s borough results will show whether the poll’s fragmented map turns into real council losses for Labour. For now, the clearest number is 15: that is where YouGov now puts Labour’s borough lead, down six from four years ago. (yougov.com)