EU jet‑fuel shortage warning

Europe’s airports are warning that the fuel under an airplane’s wings could become the bottleneck before the planes themselves do. Airports Council International Europe told the European Commission that a “systemic” jet-fuel shortage could hit within three weeks if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a stable way. (argusmedia.com) (cnbc.com) This is not a story about one airport running low on one busy weekend. The warning covers the European Union as a whole and lands just before the summer travel peak, when Airports Council International Europe says air connectivity supports 851 billion euros of economic activity and 14 million jobs. (cnbc.com) The weak point is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. The United States Energy Information Administration says about 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and petroleum products moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. (eia.gov) Europe does not get most of its jet fuel straight from Gulf refineries by accident. Argus Media reported that around 40% of Europe’s jet-fuel imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, which means a disruption there can empty European storage tanks weeks later even if airports look normal at first. (argusmedia.com) That delay is the whole reason the warning sounds strange on first read. The last cargoes that cleared the strait before the fighting escalated were still arriving in the Netherlands and Denmark this week, so the immediate supply picture looks manageable while the pipeline behind it is already thinning out. (argusmedia.com) (euronews.com) The conflict driving this started on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran, and shipping through the strait then slowed to an effective halt. A two-week ceasefire announced on April 8 eased some fears, but reporting on April 10 still described the passage as effectively closed for normal fuel flows. (cnbc.com) (euronews.com) Airlines feel this in two ways at once. The first is price: the International Air Transport Association data cited by CNBC showed jet-fuel prices up 103% month on month in March, with the U.S. benchmark rising from $2.50 a gallon on February 27 to $4.88 on April 2. (cnbc.com) The second is physical availability, which is worse than a high price because money cannot buy fuel that is not there. Euronews reported that several Italian airports had already imposed air-travel restrictions over shortage concerns, and Scandinavian Airlines said it would cancel at least 1,000 flights in April. (euronews.com) Europe does have some buffers, but they are uneven. Analysts told Euronews that countries with stronger domestic refining systems, including Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, are better placed to cushion the shock than airports that depend more heavily on imported jet fuel arriving on schedule. (euronews.com) There is also a policy complication sitting on top of the supply crunch. The European Commission’s ReFuelEU Aviation rules require fuel suppliers at European Union airports to blend in at least 2% sustainable aviation fuel from 2025, which works fine in a normal market but adds another layer of coordination when conventional fuel is already tight. (ec.europa.eu) So the real story is not that Europe suddenly forgot how to run airports. It is that a continent with busy hubs, large airlines, and climate rules still depends on a shipping lane 29 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, and when that lane jams, the disruption shows up first in timetables, cargo capacity, and fuel trucks on the tarmac. (iea.org) (argusmedia.com)