Iran doubles down on truce

Donald Trump and Iranian officials spent the past week defending incompatible terms for ending the war even as the April 7 ceasefire formally remained in effect. Reuters reported on May 11 that Trump said the truce was “on life support” after Tehran answered a U.S. proposal with demands Washington would not accept. Sporadic exchanges of fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz have continued to test the arrangement, including a May 7 clash that both sides said the other started. U.S. officials have said they want fighting halted first and the hardest issues addressed later. Iranian officials have said any broader settlement must include an end to attacks across the region, compensation for war damage, relief from the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against renewed strikes and a resumption of Iranian oil sales, according to Reuters. (usnews.com) ### What are Washington and Tehran still arguing about? Reuters reported on May 11 that Tehran’s response to the U.S. proposal made clear the two sides remained far apart on multiple points. Iran insisted on terms that went beyond a simple pause in fighting, including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to pressure on its oil exports. (usnews.com) Trump said the Iranian response was unacceptable and used unusually blunt language to describe it. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on the same day that Iran’s demands were “legitimate,” while parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Iran’s armed forces were ready to answer any new “act of aggression,” according to Reuters. (usnews.com) ### How fragile is the ceasefire on the water? On May 7, U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire in what Reuters described as the most serious test of the month-old ceasefire. Iran’s military said the United States targeted ships entering the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iranian territory, while U.S. Central Command said American forces fired in response to Iranian attacks involving missiles, drones and small boats. (usnews.com) Trump said after that clash that the ceasefire was still in effect and that Washington did not want escalation. Iran’s state media later said the situation near Iranian islands and coastal cities had returned to normal, but Reuters noted that the two sides had occasionally exchanged gunfire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7. (usnews.com) ### Why does the Strait of Hormuz keep showing up in every update? The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the war, Reuters reported on May 11. Tehran has treated control of the waterway as a central bargaining point, and shipping traffic there has fallen to a trickle compared with prewar levels. (usnews.com) Brent crude futures rose 3% to more than $104 a barrel on May 11 as the diplomatic deadlock persisted and the strait remained largely closed, Reuters reported. The same report said disruption around Hormuz had forced producers to cut exports and that OPEC output in April fell to its lowest level in more than two decades in a Reuters survey. (usnews.com) ### Are talks still happening even with both sides digging in? The New York Times reported on May 6 that Trump said his administration had had “very good talks” with Tehran in the previous 24 hours, while an Iranian official said an American plan was under review. That public optimism gave way within days to a harder line from both governments after Tehran’s formal response reached Washington. (usnews.com) USA Today reported on May 16 that U.S. and Iranian officials were still in contact as the future of the ceasefire remained uncertain. Public statements from both sides since then have shown continued engagement, but the positions described by Reuters remain unresolved. ### What comes next in the next few days? (nytimes.com) IRNA said on May 16 that Iran’s stock market would reopen on Tuesday, a step reported by CBS in its live coverage. That reopening will offer one near-term marker of whether Tehran believes the ceasefire can hold long enough for domestic economic activity to normalize further. That is an inference based on the timing of the move, not a stated Iranian government rationale. (usatoday.com) U.S. sanctions pressure is also continuing. Reuters reported on May 11 that Washington imposed new sanctions on people and companies it said were helping Iran ship oil to China, while negotiators remained at odds over the terms of a broader settlement. (usnews.com) (cbsnews.com)