Sabres hold slight edge over Canadiens

The NHL version of a coin flip is here. Buffalo and Montreal open their second-round series on Wednesday, May 6, at KeyBank Center, and almost everything about this matchup says narrow margins. Buffalo has the higher seed, home ice, and a little more rest. Montreal has a live underdog feel, a goalie running hot, and the kind of young core that can turn a series fast. (nhl.com) ### Why does Buffalo have the edge? Because Buffalo has earned the cleaner path so far. The Sabres finished as the Atlantic Division’s No. 1 seed, knocked out Boston in six games, and finally won a playoff series for the first time since 2006-07. That matters more than as nostalgia — it means this team got the monkey off its back without needing a full seven-game grind. (nhl.com) ### Why isn’t the edge bigger? Because Montreal looks like the exact kind of opponent that makes seeding feel flimsy. The Canadiens beat Tampa Bay in seven games, split the regular-season series with Buffalo 2-2-0, and come in with no mystery about how the Sabres want to play. There are no style surprises here. Both teams know the other team’s top guys, breakout patterns, and pressure points. (nhl.com) ### So what’s the real separator? It might be the top-end Buffalo talent finally cashing in. NHL’s series preview put the spotlight on Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch for the Sabres, and Tuch is the emotional center of this run because he’s doing it at home, in front of the market where he grew up. When Buffalo looks d(nhl.com)e look into a scoring chance. (nhl.com) ### Why is Montreal still dangerous? Because the Canadiens have a classic playoff pressure point — goaltending that can steal time. NHL’s preview framed Montreal’s hope around Jakub Dobes staying hot, and that is not a small detail. In a close series, a goalie doesn’t need to be better for two weeks. He just needs to be better for two nights, and suddenly the whole bracket feels different. (nhl.com) ### Does rest matter here? Probably, yes. Buffalo wrapped up Boston on May 1. Montreal had to go all the way to Game 7 against Tampa Bay on May 3 before advancing. Two days is not a massive gap, but in the second round it can mean fresher legs, an extra practice block, and a little more recovery for a team leaning on heavy minutes. (nhl.com) ### What does the schedule look like? Game 1 is Wednesday, May 6, in Buffalo at 7 p.m. ET. The NHL’s second-round schedule has Buffalo opening at home because the Sabres own home-ice advantage in the series. That gives them the last change early and, if it goes the distance, a Game 7 in Buffalo. In a matchup this tight, that’s not trivial. (nhl.com) ### Why does this series feel bigger than one round? Because both teams are carrying revival energy. Buffalo is trying to turn one long-awaited breakthrough into something real. Montreal is trying to prove its rebuild is already ahead of schedule. Neither side comes in looking like a fluke, which is why the “slight(nhl.com)able. (nhl.com) ### Bottom line Buffalo should be favored — barely. Home ice, extra rest, and the more settled first-round win give the Sabres the lean. But this looks like the kind of series where one goalie run, one special-teams swing, or one Alex Tuch takeover night can decide everything. (nhl.com)