Strait of Hormuz shipping hit

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains sparse this week, even after the United States said its naval blockade of Iranian ports was fully in place on April 15. (cnbc.com) United States Central Command said on April 12 that it would block ships entering or leaving Iranian ports while not impeding traffic to non-Iranian ports through the strait. On April 14, Reuters reported that six merchant ships had turned back under the first day of enforcement. (centcom.mil) (usnews.com) The disruption did not start this week. The World Trade Organization’s Hormuz tracker says Iran announced the strait’s closure on March 2, and outbound shipments of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer-related products then fell to almost zero. (datalab.wto.org) United Nations Trade and Development said daily ship transits through the strait dropped from an average of 129 in February to 6 in March, a decline of about 95%. The agency said oil and liquefied natural gas carriers were hit hardest, with higher transport costs spreading into port logistics and air cargo. (unctad.org) That matters because the strait is one of the world’s main energy chokepoints. The United States Energy Information Administration said 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz in 2024, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. (eia.gov) The cargo mix is wider than oil. The World Trade Organization tracker covers crude oil, natural gas, sulphur, ammonia and other fertilizer-related products, which means the squeeze reaches power markets, farm inputs and industrial supply chains at the same time. (datalab.wto.org) The United States says the blockade is aimed at Iran’s sea trade, not at shutting the waterway to every ship. Central Command said the order applies to vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, while CNBC reported Windward had still identified at least two vessels making crossings under active enforcement on April 15. (centcom.mil) (cnbc.com) That gap between official policy and actual traffic is why importers are still dealing with volatility. Windward said the remaining transits were concentrated among sanctioned, falsely flagged and other high-risk vessels, a pattern that leaves ordinary commercial shippers facing higher uncertainty and fewer predictable routes. (cnbc.com) The economic spillover is already showing up in forecasts. The International Monetary Fund said on April 14 that a longer shutdown of Hormuz would push energy prices higher, cut 2026 global growth to 2.5% in its adverse scenario and lift inflation to 5.4%. (imf.org) For now, the clearest signal is still the traffic count: a route that normally carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil is moving only a trickle of ships, and companies that depend on Gulf cargoes still do not have a normal restart date. (eia.gov) (unctad.org)