Red Sea route risks rise
Officials have highlighted threats to the Red Sea and Bab el‑Mandeb chokepoints, widening shipping risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz. ( ) The disruption is already showing up in trade flows and energy markets — India’s trade with the Middle East plunged over 50% in March and analysts warn a collapse in Middle East crude exports is reshaping diesel and import costs. ( )
The risk map for global shipping has widened from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea’s southern gate, the Bab el-Mandeb. (maritime.dot.gov, eia.gov) On March 26, the United States Maritime Administration issued an active advisory covering the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin, warning that commercial vessels in the area face increased danger from Houthi attacks. (maritime.dot.gov) Bab el-Mandeb is the narrow waterway between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, making it the southern access point for ships using the Suez Canal route. In 2024, about 4.1 million barrels a day of oil and petroleum liquids moved through it, down from 9.3 million barrels a day in 2023 after attacks and rerouting cut traffic. (eia.gov) That drop is already visible in shipping patterns. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said in its February 2024 Red Sea assessment that attacks beginning in November 2023 were already diverting vessels, lengthening voyages and disrupting supply chains tied to Suez. (unctad.org) India is now reporting the trade shock in hard numbers. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India’s exports to the Middle East fell more than 50% in March and imports from the region dropped 54%, as fighting and shipping disruption hit gems, jewellery, engineering goods and rice shipments. (economictimes.indiatimes.com, cnbc.com) The energy hit is moving through a different channel. Oilfield Technology, citing Wood Mackenzie VesselTracker data, reported Middle East crude exports fell from 18.7 million barrels a day in early February to 5.9 million barrels a day in early March, forcing Europe and Asia to pull in more North American barrels and reshuffle diesel and gasoline flows. (oilfieldtechnology.com) The World Bank said on April 9 that India’s growth is still projected at 6.6% in fiscal year 2027, but higher energy prices and supply-chain disruption from the Middle East conflict are weighing on the outlook. (worldbank.org) This is why the Bab el-Mandeb matters even when the immediate headlines focus on Hormuz. A ship that cannot safely cross the Red Sea loses the Suez shortcut and often has to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time, fuel cost and insurance risk to cargo moving between Asia, Europe and the Mediterranean. (unctad.org, eia.gov) The result is a two-chokepoint problem: one passage constrains Gulf energy exports, while the other threatens the main sea lane connecting Europe to Asia. As long as both risks stay live, trade data, freight decisions and fuel prices will keep reflecting more than a single blocked strait. (maritime.dot.gov, eia.gov, economictimes.indiatimes.com)
