China oil imports drop to 6.6m b/d

China’s crude oil imports fell to about 6.6 million barrels per day in May, according to data highlighted by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas on June 3. The figure points to one of the weakest monthly import rates in recent years for the world’s largest crude importer. It also marks a sharp break from 2025, when China imported a record 11.6 million barrels per day on average, according to Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. The drop has drawn attention because China’s buying patterns are closely watched by oil traders, producers and policymakers. ### Why did the May number draw so much attention? Javier Blas posted the 6.6 million bpd May figure on X on June 3, framing it as a major global markets development. The number stood out because it implied a drop of roughly 38% from the prior month and a much steeper fall from the levels China sustained through most of 2025, based on the context in Blas’s post and tanker-tracking estimates cited in coverage of the decline. (energypolicy.columbia.edu) China matters because it is the largest crude importer in the world, and changes in its buying can move freight, refinery margins and benchmark prices. Columbia’s Erica Downs wrote in January that China’s crude imports averaged a record 11.6 million bpd in 2025, driven in large part by stock building and purchases from suppliers including Iran, Russia and Venezuela. (msn.com) ### Is this about weak Chinese demand, or fewer barrels arriving? Kpler data cited in coverage of the May collapse showed China imported about 6.36 million barrels a day by sea in May, down from 11.39 million bpd in February, the last full month before the Middle East war disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That points first to a supply and logistics shock rather than a simple change in end-user demand. (energypolicy.columbia.edu) The International Energy Agency said on May 13 that global oil supply had fallen by 12.8 million bpd since February and that refinery crude throughputs were forecast to plunge by 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter. The agency said disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz were depleting inventories and forcing new trade flows to emerge. ### How much protection does China have against a supply shock? (msn.com) China entered 2026 with unusually large stockpiles. Erica Downs wrote that China’s record 2025 imports were driven by stock building and that the country’s oil stockpiles should allow it to weather a multi-month interruption of imports from Iran and Venezuela. She cited Rystad Energy estimates that China stockpiled 430,000 bpd in 2025, equal to 83% of the annual increase in imports. (iea.org) CNBC reported in March that China had built roughly three to four months of reserves, citing Rush Doshi of the Council on Foreign Relations. Doshi said China had spent two decades reducing some dependence on maritime oil flows by expanding pipelines and non-fossil energy sources. ### What does this mean for the global oil market right now? The IEA said on May 13 that world oil demand is forecast to contract by 420,000 barrels a day in 2026, while global supply is projected to decline by 3.9 million bpd on average this year if Strait of Hormuz flows gradually resume from June. (energypolicy.columbia.edu) The agency also said observed global inventories fell by 117 million barrels in April alone. OPEC said in its May monthly report that it still expects world oil demand to grow by about 1.2 million bpd in 2026, a more constructive view than the IEA’s. (cnbc.com) That gap leaves traders weighing two moving pieces at once: how quickly disrupted supply returns and how much Chinese buying recovers after May’s slump. ### What should readers watch next? June shipping data will be the next test of whether May was an extreme disruption month or the start of a longer reset in Chinese buying. (iea.org) The IEA said it assumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resume from June, and that assumption will be checked against China’s next customs release and tanker-tracking data from firms such as Kpler. (publications.opec.org)