Ceasefire odds crater
Ukraine’s peace prospects looked bleak after President Zelensky slammed the U.S. decision to relax Russian oil sanctions, saying it hurts chances for a settlement reported. Betting markets reflected that pessimism — the Polymarket contract for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of March plunged to just a 2% YES probability amid rising strikes on Russian energy targets reported.
The U.S. administration announced a 30‑day waiver on certain sanctions for seaborne Russian crude on March 13, 2026 to free stranded cargoes, and Brent crude briefly traded around $103.24 per barrel after the move []. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the measure “not the right decision,” warning at a Paris news conference that the easing could deliver roughly $10 billion to Russia’s war effort; German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also publicly criticized Washington’s direction []. Kyiv has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure this month, including a March 12 drone attack on the Tikhoretsk oil pumping station in Krasnodar that ignited fires across about 3,800 square meters, according to satellite and local reports []; the Institute for the Study of War documented related strikes in Krasnodar Krai during March 7–8 operations []. Activity in prediction markets jumped after the sanctions move and the strikes, with market trackers reporting roughly $24.7 million in total traded on the Polymarket March ceasefire market and about $355,000 in 24‑hour volume, data compiled by market analytics outlets show []; Polymarket’s analytics page lists the active “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?” market under the March resolution window [].
