Playoff math weekend

The National Basketball Association regular season has two days left, and Friday plus Sunday will decide matchups that still look half-finished on April 10. All 30 teams play on Friday, all 30 teams play again on Sunday, the Play-In Tournament starts on April 14, and the first round starts on April 18. (nba.com; nba.com) The cleanest example is the Eastern Conference No. 2 seed, where Boston is 54-25 and New York is 51-28 after the Knicks beat the Celtics on Thursday. CBS Sports reports New York still has the tiebreaker, so if Boston loses its last two games against New Orleans and Orlando while New York wins its last two against Toronto and Charlotte, the Knicks jump to No. 2. (cbssports.com; nba.com) The middle of the East is even tighter, because Atlanta is 45-35, Toronto is 44-35, Orlando is 44-36, Philadelphia is 43-36, and Charlotte is 43-37. That is five teams packed within two games for seeds No. 5 through No. 9, which is the difference between a guaranteed playoff series and a week spent trying to survive the play-in. (espn.com; espn.com) Friday’s East schedule is built like a bracket sorter, not a normal regular-season night. Cleveland visits Atlanta, Toronto visits New York, Philadelphia hosts Indiana, and Orlando visits Chicago, so the teams fighting over No. 5 through No. 8 are hitting the court at almost the same time. (nba.com; espn.com) Philadelphia has the steepest climb, because ESPN says the 76ers have only a 2.9% chance to avoid the play-in and will be without Joel Embiid after an appendicitis diagnosis on Thursday. The league’s Friday scenarios say a Philadelphia loss or a Toronto win locks the 76ers into the Play-In Tournament. (espn.com; nba.com) The Western Conference has fewer teams in the mix, but the swings are bigger near the top. Oklahoma City has already clinched No. 1 at 64-16, San Antonio has clinched No. 2 at 61-19, Minnesota is locked into No. 6 at 47-33, and the fight is concentrated around Denver at 52-28, the Los Angeles Lakers at 50-29, and Houston at 50-29. (cbssports.com; espn.com) That is why Denver against Oklahoma City, Houston against Minnesota, and Phoenix against the Lakers all matter on the same night. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives Denver a 40% chance to finish No. 3, ahead of Houston and the Lakers, which tells you how little daylight there is between home-court advantage and a road series. (espn.com; nba.com) Houston’s corner of the bracket is the most volatile because the Rockets can still land anywhere from No. 3 to No. 5. Rockets Wire says Houston enters the weekend in a three-team race with Denver and the Lakers, so one loss can turn a team from hosting Game 1 to opening on the road. (rocketswire.usatoday.com; espn.com) Lower in the West, the pressure shifts from seeding to survival. The Phoenix Suns are locked into the No. 7 play-in spot, the Golden State Warriors are locked into No. 10, and the Los Angeles Clippers lead Portland by one game for No. 8, which is the safer lane because the No. 8 team gets two chances to win one play-in game instead of needing two straight wins. (cbssports.com; espn.com; nba.com) So this weekend is not really about one race. It is about Boston trying to hold off New York, Atlanta and Toronto trying to skip the play-in, Philadelphia trying not to get trapped in it, Houston trying to climb, Denver trying to stay hot after 10 straight wins, and the Clippers trying to avoid the harsher side of the West play-in before the bracket freezes on Sunday, April 12. (cbssports.com; espn.com; nba.com)