China: growth up, demand weak

China’s economy grew faster in early 2026, but Chinese households still spent cautiously in March. (stats.gov.cn, english.www.gov.cn) Gross domestic product rose 5.0% from a year earlier in the first quarter, up from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to official data released on April 16. Quarterly growth was 1.3% from the previous quarter. (english.www.gov.cn, msn.com) Retail sales, a broad measure of consumer spending, rose 1.7% in March after growing 2.8% in January-February, while industrial output increased 5.7% in March. China’s customs data showed March exports in dollar terms rose 2.5% from a year earlier, slower than the first-quarter pace highlighted by state media. (newsbreak.com, english.customs.gov.cn, english.www.gov.cn) That mix leaves Beijing with a familiar imbalance: factories and trade are carrying more of the load than households. State media said policymakers are now emphasizing “economic resilience” as they try to stabilize growth and employment. (english.www.gov.cn, english.news.cn) The weakness in demand is showing up beyond the shopping data. Official housing data released the same week showed new-home prices were up month to month in 14 of 70 cities in March, but nationwide prices were still falling from a year earlier and the property slump had not fully cleared. (english.scio.gov.cn, money.usnews.com) Outside China, the backdrop has also turned harder. Reuters reported that officials and economists were bracing for higher energy costs and weaker global demand after the Iran war, and the International Monetary Fund this week put China’s 2026 growth forecast at 4.4%. (msn.com, govt.chinadaily.com.cn) Beijing’s problem is not the headline number for one quarter. It is whether 5.0% growth can hold if exports cool further and consumers keep pulling back. (msn.com, newsbreak.com)