Oil spikes to $79 on strikes

Brent crude climbed to nearly $79 a barrel on July 9 after fresh U.S. and Iranian strikes and attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz renewed fears over oil supply and shipping. Choppy trading in stocks and bonds reflected investor concern that the latest escalation could feed inflation and slow growth, the New York Times reported. The move extended a rally that began after President Donald Trump said the U.S. ceasefire with Iran was over and U.S. forces launched strikes in response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the strait. ### Why did oil jump again after already rising earlier this week? President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was over after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and that comment added to an already tense market backdrop. Reuters reported on July 7 that Brent settled at $74.16 a barrel and then extended gains to $75.88 in post-settlement trading after the United States revoked a general license authorizing Iranian oil sales and launched new strikes on Iran. (nytimes.com) By July 9, Brent had climbed further and briefly touched $79.26 a barrel, according to the Guardian briefing cited in the source materials, while the New York Times reported that investors were also weighing the war’s effects on inflation and growth. Dow Jones, via Morningstar, said oil had jumped 6% after Trump signaled that diplomatic efforts with Tehran had stalled. (money.usnews.com) ### What happened in the Strait of Hormuz? U.S. Central Command said it launched “a series of powerful strikes” on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. CBS reported that CENTCOM said the operation targeted air defenses, radar sites, anti-ship missile sites and dozens of small boats used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. (nytimes.com) Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told India Today that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “has essentially stopped,” adding that the market reaction showed how sensitive prices remain to escalation around a route critical to global oil flows. India Today reported that Brent climbed to nearly $79 a barrel, its highest since June 19. (cbsnews.com) ### Why are traders treating shipping disruption as the bigger risk? The Strait of Hormuz is a key transit route for Middle East crude exports, so attacks on vessels can move prices even before any physical supply loss is confirmed. Reuters quoted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo as saying renewed tensions and concern over vessel attacks could drag lower oil exports from the Middle East. Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, said further attacks could appear in coming months and add to volatility. (indiatoday.in) Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, told Reuters on July 7 that the latest moves marked “the next level of breakaway” from the June memorandum of understanding that had aimed to end the war and reopen the strait. He said it remained unclear whether Iran’s actions were meant to assert authority over the waterway or signal strength. (money.usnews.com) ### Is the oil spike already feeding through to consumers? AAA said the U.S. national average for regular gasoline was $3.846 a gallon on July 9. India Today reported the average was $3.80 on July 8, up from $3.79 a day earlier but still below the month-ago average of $4.16, reflecting the lag between crude moves and retail fuel prices. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 319.5 million barrels in the week ending July 3, the lowest level since April 1983, according to Department of Energy data reported by Reuters. (money.usnews.com) India Today quoted Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Institute as saying the drawdown left “a lot less ammunition” in reserve if prices rise further. (gasprices.aaa.com) ### What is the IMF saying about the broader economic fallout? The International Monetary Fund’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook update projected global growth of 3.0% for 2026, down from 3.5% in the April forecast cited in the source briefings, and said the global economy faced headwinds from war even as technology investment offered support. Reuters, as carried by Kitco and AOL, reported on July 8 that the IMF lowered its 2026 forecast to 3.0% and warned about risks from the war in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and potential market corrections tied to AI expectations. (energynow.com) The next markers are concrete. The IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook update is now public on its publications page, AAA is publishing daily gasoline averages, and traders are watching whether tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz or whether Washington and Tehran announce further military action. (imf.org)