Super El Niño looming
Climate models now flag a possible 'super El Niño' that could push global temperatures to unprecedented highs by late 2026 and amplify extreme weather risks, forecasters warned this week warned. Scientists say regions from Africa to Southeast Asia could already see outsized sea-level and heat impacts, and some models list 2026 or 2027 as contenders for the hottest year on record — though debate continues over natural variability versus human-driven warming reported argued.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch on March 12, 2026 and placed the odds of El Niño emerging in June–August at 62% with persistence through year‑end. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts’ SEAS5 seasonal ensemble shows a rapid warm‑phase shift in Niño3.4 this spring, with ensemble plumes moving into El Niño range by May–August. (charts.ecmwf.int) A public summary of the ECMWF ensemble, cited by meteorologist Ben Noll, reported ensemble probabilities of about 98% for a moderate event, 80% for a strong event and 22% for a “super” El Niño by August 2026. (gizmodo.com) The World Meteorological Organization’s March update still gives ENSO‑neutral the highest odds for March–May (around 60–70%) but shows the collective model consensus raising El Niño probability to roughly 40% by May–July. (wmo.int) Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather and others noted that a strong El Niño would raise global‑mean temperatures — potentially lifting 2026 estimates and making 2027 a leading candidate for the warmest year on record, according to recent commentary. (thecalifornian.com) Researchers report regional sea levels around Africa have risen about 11.26 cm since 1993 and currently average roughly 3.54 mm/year — exceeding the global mean — leaving coastal systems more exposed if a strong El Niño amplifies regional ocean anomalies. (iol.co.za) Market and food‑security risks were flagged by forecasters and analysts, with Bloomberg noting El Niño’s potential to disrupt crops in the months ahead and IMF/FAO reviews documenting past El Niño events’ measurable effects on growth, inflation and nonfuel commodity prices. (bloomberg.com)
