TSMC sees $1.5T market by 2030

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said on May 14 that it now expects the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, raising a previous forecast of $1 trillion as artificial intelligence spending lifts demand for advanced chips and packaging. The company disclosed the revised outlook in presentation materials ahead of a technology symposium in Hsinchu, Taiwan. A day later, TSMC filed its reviewed first-quarter 2026 financial statements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The two disclosures put a larger long-term market forecast alongside fresh quarterly numbers from the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. ### How much bigger is the market TSMC now sees? TSMC put the 2030 semiconductor market at more than $1.5 trillion, up from its prior $1 trillion view, according to the company’s symposium materials. Reuters reported that the company tied the increase to AI-driven demand growth across chips and related manufacturing capacity. (money.usnews.com) The company said AI and high-performance computing would account for 55% of that 2030 market, with smartphones at 20% and automotive applications at 10%. Those figures show how much of TSMC’s long-range demand model is now centered on data-center and accelerator spending rather than consumer devices alone. (money.usnews.com) ### Which parts of the chip business are driving that forecast? AI accelerator wafer demand is projected to rise 11-fold from 2022 to 2026, TSMC said in the same materials. The company also forecast a compound annual growth rate of more than 80% for CoWoS advanced packaging capacity from 2022 to 2027. CoWoS is widely used in AI chips, including processors designed by Nvidia, according to Reuters. (money.usnews.com) TSMC also said capacity for its 2-nanometer and A16 technologies is projected to grow at a 70% compound annual rate from 2026 to 2028. That matters because the most advanced AI chips depend on both leading-edge wafer production and advanced packaging, two areas where TSMC has been expanding fastest. (money.usnews.com) ### What did TSMC report for the first quarter? TSMC reported first-quarter 2026 net revenue of $35.90 billion, gross margin of 66.2% and operating margin of 58.1%, according to its investor relations site. For the second quarter, the company guided revenue to $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion. The reviewed filing submitted to the SEC covered the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025. (money.usnews.com) The filing was signed on May 15 by Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang, and the accompanying Deloitte & Touche review report was dated May 12, according to the filing summary. (investor.tsmc.com) ### Why does the SEC filing matter for this story? The SEC filing does not change TSMC’s operating results, but it puts the company’s Taiwan-IFRS interim statements into a U.S. reporting channel used by global shareholders and bondholders. That filing arrived just after TSMC updated its long-range market view, linking a bigger industry target with current financial disclosures that show strong revenue and margin levels. (theglobeandmail.com) A bigger total addressable market does not by itself guarantee sales, because chipmakers still need manufacturing slots and packaging capacity to convert demand into shipments. TSMC’s own materials point to that constraint by emphasizing fab build-outs, advanced packaging expansion and rising output plans in Arizona, Japan and Germany. (theglobeandmail.com) ### Where is TSMC adding capacity to meet that demand? TSMC said the first Arizona fab is already in production, tool move-in for the second fab is planned in the second half of 2026, and construction of a third fab is underway. The company also said work on a fourth fab and the site’s first advanced packaging facility is expected to begin this year. (money.usnews.com) In Japan, TSMC said its first fab is in volume production for 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer products, while plans for a second fab have been upgraded to 3-nanometer. In Germany, the company said its fab is under construction and will start with 28-nanometer and 22-nanometer technologies, followed by 16-nanometer and 12-nanometer processes. (money.usnews.com) The next scheduled marker is TSMC’s second-quarter 2026 outlook, which the company set at $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion in revenue, while Arizona tool move-in for the second fab is planned for the second half of 2026. (investor.tsmc.com) (money.usnews.com)