China credit growth stalls
China’s credit expansion slowed more than expected, driven by weak household and business loan demand despite policy support. (bloomberg.com). Reports say the economy remains lopsided toward industry rather than consumers, even as some strategists price a recovery—Eurizon’s Stephen Jen sees Chinese stocks potentially rising about 10% by year‑end if policy transmission improves—and nearby policymakers are already reacting, with Singapore tightening monetary settings amid Middle East-driven energy and growth concerns. (prokerala.com) (bloomberg.com) (nst.com.my)
China’s March credit data missed expectations, showing that cheaper money is still not pulling households and businesses back into borrowing. (reuters.com) People’s Bank of China data released April 13 showed total social financing outstanding rose 7.9% from a year earlier to 456.46 trillion yuan, while broad money, or M2, grew 8.5% to 353.86 trillion yuan. First-quarter total social financing increased 14.83 trillion yuan, 354.5 billion yuan less than a year earlier. (publicnow.com) Renminbi loans rose 8.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, and household loans increased just 296.7 billion yuan. Corporate and public-sector loans did most of the work, with enterprise loans up 8.6 trillion yuan, including 5.42 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term borrowing. (publicnow.com) That split fits a pattern Beijing has been trying to break: factories and state-backed investment keep getting funded, while consumer borrowing and private demand stay soft. Reuters reported March new bank lending rose less than economists expected, signaling the central bank is not rushing into another broad easing move. (reuters.com) China has already rolled out support. In May 2025, the central bank cut its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, and reduced some housing provident fund loan rates by 25 basis points. (cnbc.com) (yicaiglobal.com) Some investors still see a turn. Bloomberg reported on April 14 that Eurizon SLJ Capital’s Stephen Jen said Chinese stocks could rise about 10% by the end of 2026 if supportive policy starts reaching the real economy more effectively. (bloomberg.com) The regional backdrop is shifting too. Singapore tightened monetary policy on April 14, becoming one of the first Asian economies to respond to higher inflation risks tied to a Middle East-driven jump in energy prices. (thestar.com.my) (icis.com) Singapore’s central bank manages policy mainly through its currency, not a headline interest rate, so a tighter setting points to concern about imported inflation even as growth slows. That leaves China moving in the opposite direction: still trying to get credit flowing at home while neighbors prepare for costlier energy and stickier prices. (nst.com.my) (thestar.com.my) The next test is whether China’s spring lending weakness fades in the second quarter. If households keep saving and companies keep borrowing mainly for industrial projects, the headline money growth will look steadier than the demand underneath it. (reuters.com) (publicnow.com)
