Tariff unpredictability spikes

Washington is still using tariffs to push production back to the United States, even as courts unwind some of the biggest Trump-era duties and businesses line up for refunds. (waysandmeans.house.gov) At a House Ways and Means hearing on April 22, 2026, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer defended the administration’s trade agenda, and Chairman Jason Smith said the United States must keep “tearing down trade barriers” that hurt producers and workers. The hearing was held at 10:00 a.m. in the Longworth House Office Building. (waysandmeans.house.gov) At the same time, U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened an online claims system on April 20 for businesses seeking refunds on tariffs the Supreme Court said Trump imposed without constitutional authority. Reuters, via CNBC, reported that more than 330,000 importers paid about $166 billion on more than 53 million shipments. (cnbc.com) The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling on February 20 said the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not let the president impose those tariffs, and a later Court of International Trade order required refunds. Customs said 56,497 importers had registered by April 14 for about $127 billion, including interest, and approved claims are expected to be paid in 60 to 90 days. (cnbc.com) That leaves manufacturers planning around two tracks at once: some tariffs are being repaid, while others remain in force or have been reworked under different legal authorities. The Budget Lab at Yale estimated on April 8 that the pre-substitution U.S. effective tariff rate was 11.8%, the highest since the early 1940s excluding 2025. (budgetlab.yale.edu) The same Yale analysis said tariffs in place through April 8 would raise the average household price level by 0.5% to 0.7% if Section 122 tariffs expire on schedule, and by 0.9% to 1.1% if they are made permanent. It also projected a long-run gain of 1.1% in manufacturing output, alongside declines in construction and mining. (budgetlab.yale.edu) Manufacturers say the harder problem is not just the tariff bill but the policy swing itself. Thomson Reuters wrote on April 23 that changing duty rates and exemptions are undermining forecasting, inventory planning, supplier relationships and customs compliance across global manufacturing networks. (thomsonreuters.com) That pressure had already shown up before this week’s refund rollout. Deloitte’s 2026 manufacturing outlook said more than three-quarters of manufacturers in National Association of Manufacturers 2025 quarterly surveys cited trade uncertainty as their top concern, while costs rose, employment fell and manufacturing construction spending declined. (deloitte.com) Greer has argued the strategy is rebuilding industrial capacity. On an April 9-11 tour of factories in Ohio and Michigan, he said new investment and rising manufacturing wages showed “the plan is working,” while acknowledging companies were warning that making goods in America was getting more expensive. (politico.com) The result is a trade landscape where companies can win back duties from last year, pay new ones this year, and still have to decide where to source parts and place factories before the rules settle. (thomsonreuters.com)