Supply‑chain pressures surge

In March, one supply-chain gauge jumped from 0.09 to 0.57, its highest reading since January 2023, after the war in the Middle East drove up energy prices and disrupted shipping lanes. GEP says the same shock pushed shortages to a three-year high and transport costs to a four-year peak. (prnewswire.com) That index matters because it is built from a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses tracking demand, inventories, backlogs, shortages and freight costs. When manufacturers start buying extra parts just to feel safe, the index catches that stockpiling before empty shelves show up in public data. (prnewswire.com) Europe’s manufacturers were the most aggressive stockpilers in March, while Asia reported weaker demand but sharply higher transport costs. North America looked different again: demand stayed soft, but companies still faced rising cost pressure from pricier inputs and shipping. (prnewswire.com) One reason the system is so jumpy is that global trade now depends on a handful of narrow shortcuts, and two of the biggest are both under stress. The Red Sea has been hit by conflict-linked rerouting, while the Panama Canal only recently climbed out of a drought that cut daily ship slots to as few as 24 and pushed draft limits below 44 feet. (prnewswire.com) (gcaptain.com) Panama’s rebound has been real. gCaptain reports the canal is back at full capacity after the 2023–2024 water crisis, and Panama Canal officials have said revenue is recovering toward the $5 billion mark as traffic returns. (gcaptain.com) (caliber.az) But the canal’s recovery is still built on rainfall, and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niño watch that puts water levels back on the risk map. The last El Niño helped trigger the canal’s worst recent restrictions, so even an early warning changes how shippers plan routes and booking slots. (gcaptain.com) Now a legal fight is adding another layer of uncertainty around the canal itself. Panama Ports Company, a unit of CK Hutchison, filed arbitration against A.P. Moller-Maersk on April 9, accusing Maersk of undermining its concession tied to the Balboa and Cristobal terminals at the canal’s Pacific and Atlantic ends. (container-mag.com) Those terminals are not the canal locks, but they are the loading yards at the front doors, where containers are moved on and off ships and into inland networks. When the operator of those gateways is in a dispute with one of the world’s biggest shipping groups, cargo owners have to price in the risk of delays, contract fights and political intervention. (container-mag.com) (washingtonpost.com) Put together, the picture is awkward for importers: the world just got one major route back, but that route still depends on weather and sits inside a live legal and political contest. That is why companies are hoarding inventory now even while demand is uneven: paying for extra stock can look cheaper than betting everything on a canal slot, a court case or a war zone staying quiet. (prnewswire.com) (gcaptain.com) (container-mag.com)