Private investors back 73% renewables

BloombergNEF said on September 7 that corporate power purchase agreements are expected to support 73% of South Africa’s projected new solar and wind additions in 2026. The forecast covers 2.3 gigawatts of anticipated capacity and points to private buyers, rather than state procurement rounds, as the main source of demand for new utility-scale projects. The shift comes after South Africa changed electricity rules to allow more competition and private trading, while Eskom and the National Transmission Company South Africa work through transmission bottlenecks. ### Where does the 73% figure come from? BloombergNEF said corporate buyers are set to support 73% of South Africa’s 2.3 gigawatts of expected solar and wind additions in 2026. Its South Africa Transition Factbook said private clean-power procurement is becoming a defining feature of the country’s electricity market and that corporate PPAs would overtake government auctions for utility-scale renewable additions for the first time. (about.bnef.com) TaiyangNews, citing the same BloombergNEF research, reported that South Africa is expected to add 2.3 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity in 2026, with 73% backed by corporate buyers. Green Building Africa separately reported the same figure and said corporate PPAs were expected to support most of the buildout next year. ### Why are private companies driving the next wave? (about.bnef.com) South Africa changed the legal structure of its power market in recent years to open more room for private investment. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office said when he signed the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act in August 2024 that the law would establish a competitive electricity market, increase investment in new generation capacity and create an independent transmission company as custodian of the national grid. (taiyangnews.info) The Energy One Stop Shop legislative summary says the 100-megawatt threshold for licence exemption was first introduced and then removed in 2022, allowing companies and municipalities to generate more of their own electricity without a generation licence, subject to registration requirements. That regulatory loosening helped create a pipeline for mines, manufacturers, data centers and other large users to buy power directly from private developers. (thepresidency.gov.za) ### Does this mean the state has stopped building? Government procurement has not disappeared, but BloombergNEF’s forecast indicates it is no longer expected to be the dominant source of new solar and wind additions in 2026. The change is about who is financing and contracting the next tranche of projects, not a full withdrawal of the state from the sector. (energyoss.gov.za) The OECD said in its 2025 survey of South Africa that the country’s electricity system had suffered from underinvestment in new generation capacity and insufficient maintenance of an aging fleet. That backdrop helps explain why policymakers have pushed market reform and why private procurement has expanded. (about.bnef.com) ### What is the main obstacle to building more? Eskom said in its April 22, 2026 winter outlook briefing that “grid constraints to connect additional capacity” remain one of the system’s key challenges. The same briefing listed transmission development plan execution, curtailment rules and grid-capacity allocation among the issues still requiring action. (oecd.org) NTCSA’s reports page shows a Transmission Development Plan 2025-2034 public report, underscoring that transmission expansion is now a central part of the next phase of power-market reform. BloombergNEF also said transmission constraints and high industrial electricity costs could limit investment and manufacturing growth. ### Where does the jobs angle come in? The BloombergNEF forecast is about capacity additions, not a formal employment tally. (eskom.co.za) But the sectors attached to utility-scale solar and wind buildouts are visible: project development, engineering, procurement, construction, battery storage, grid connection work, operations and maintenance, and equipment supply. Eskom said in April that it was accelerating transmission and distribution expansion to relieve grid constraints and unlock new generating capacity from all participants. (ntcsa.co.za) That means the next phase will depend not only on solar and wind farms, but also on substations, transmission lines, system operation and market services. NTCSA’s transmission pipeline and South Africa’s competitive-market rollout are the next concrete markers to watch. BloombergNEF’s 2026 forecast, the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act framework and NTCSA’s 2025-2034 transmission plan will be the reference points for whether private-backed projects move from contracted capacity to connected megawatts. (about.bnef.com) (eskom.co.za)