NOAA issues 2026 hurricane forecast

NOAA on May 21 said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below normal, with forecasters calling for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The agency said there is a 55% chance of a below-average season, a 35% chance of a near-average season and a 10% chance of an above-average season. The outlook was issued ahead of the June 1 start of the Atlantic season, which runs through Nov. 30. NOAA said a developing El Niño is expected to suppress some Atlantic storm formation. ### Why is NOAA expecting fewer Atlantic storms this year? The Climate Prediction Center said El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for storms to organize and strengthen. NOAA said that pattern is the main reason it expects lower basin-wide activity in 2026. The agency’s outlook was produced with the National Hurricane Center and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. (noaa.gov) NOAA said the forecast covers overall seasonal activity across the Atlantic basin, including the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. The agency said the outlook is not a landfall forecast and does not predict where storms may hit. ### What exactly do the numbers mean? NOAA’s range of 8 to 14 named storms includes systems with winds of at least 39 mph. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The agency said 3 to 6 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, meaning sustained winds of at least 74 mph, and 1 to 3 could reach major hurricane status at Category 3 strength or higher. The 55% probability attached to a below-average season reflects NOAA’s confidence range, not a guarantee. The same outlook assigns a 35% chance to near-normal activity and a 10% chance to above-normal activity. ### Does a below-normal season mean lower risk on shore? NOAA said no seasonal outlook changes the need for local preparation because a single storm can cause severe damage and flooding. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) National Hurricane Center guidance and NOAA public materials say people in hurricane-prone areas should prepare before June 1 regardless of the seasonal totals. ABC News, citing NOAA’s outlook, reported that the Atlantic forecast contrasts with NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific, where the agency expects above-average activity in 2026. That split reflects how El Niño can suppress Atlantic development while favoring more activity in the Pacific. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### Where and when was the forecast announced? NOAA announced the outlook during a May 21 news conference at its Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, and online. The agency had previewed that event in a May 4 media advisory. The official outlook page and NOAA news release were both published on May 21. (abcnews.com) Broad public coverage continued on May 22 as the forecast circulated ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and the formal start of the season. ### What should readers watch next? June 1 is the next key date because that is when the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins. (noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center said its routine Tropical Weather Outlook products resume for the season at that point, with special outlooks issued earlier if conditions warrant. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center hosts the full 2026 Atlantic outlook, and the National Hurricane Center will publish in-season tropical outlooks, advisories and storm tracks as conditions develop through Nov. 30. (noaa.gov) (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) (nhc.noaa.gov)