China Q1 pickup
China likely picked up economic pace in the first quarter, driven by stronger exports even as consumer demand at home stayed weak. (digitaljournal.com) Analysts say policy easing could support markets — Stephen Jen predicts stocks could rise about 10% this year, and Bank of America notes inflation remains below target, leaving room for further monetary easing. ( )
Economists surveyed by Agence France-Presse expect China’s economy to have grown 4.8% in the first quarter, up from 4.5% in the last three months of 2025. (bssnews.net) The official gross domestic product report is due Thursday, April 16, after Beijing set a 2026 growth target of about 4.5% to 5.0% last month. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said industrial output rose 6.3% in January and February from a year earlier. (bssnews.net) (stats.gov.cn) Trade did much of the lifting early in the year. China’s exports rose 21.8% in January and February combined, before slowing to 2.5% in March, while imports jumped 27.8% in March, the fastest pace since November 2021. (cnbc.com) Domestic demand has not kept up. Sarah Tan of Moody’s Analytics said the headline growth rate “masks underlying imbalances,” with external demand driving growth while domestic momentum stays weak. (bssnews.net) The weak spot is familiar: households are still spending cautiously as the property downturn drags on. Agence France-Presse said the long-running real estate crisis has pushed consumers to cut back, even as China leans on overseas shipments to support output. (bssnews.net) The export story has also shifted with the war in the Middle East. Dan Wang of Eurasia Group said global dependence on Chinese exports has increased because China’s supply chain and energy security have been less disrupted than those of other industrial economies. (bssnews.net) That resilience has fed a more upbeat market view. Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital said Chinese stocks could rise 10% by year-end, citing supportive policies, discounted valuations and expected earnings growth of 5% to 10%. (bloomberg.com) Bank of America struck a similar policy note from a different angle. It said China’s 2026 consumer price inflation could run at 1.0% and producer price inflation at 1.2%, levels still low enough to leave the People’s Bank of China room to cut rates further if growth falters. (investinglive.com) That leaves Thursday’s data doing two jobs at once: measuring whether exports were strong enough to lift the quarter, and showing how much of the economy is still waiting for Chinese consumers to return. (bssnews.net)
