Trump credits Pakistan for Iran ceasefire
- Trump said the U.S. ceasefire with Iran was "a favour to Pakistan" and said he did not favor further strikes. - Attacks on a Pakistani outpost in the northwest killed more than 20 people in recent days, analysts say this could jeopardise the Afghanistan ceasefire. - The juxtaposition gives Pakistan rhetorical credit, prompts Indian questions about U.S. neutrality and complicates regional diplomacy. (hindustantimes.com) (aljazeera.com)
Former President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that the recent US-brokered ceasefire with Iran came as "a favour to Pakistan," adding he did not favor further strikes on Tehran. The remark, made during a rally in Florida, ties the de-escalation—effective May 12 after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites—to Pakistan's interests. Trump said: "We did it for our friends in Pakistan. No more bombs unless they break it first." ### 2/ Timeline of the US-Iran clashes Tensions peaked on May 8 when US forces struck three Iranian facilities near Natanz, killing 14 IRGC personnel, per Pentagon reports. Iran retaliated with drone attacks on US bases in Iraq, prompting the ceasefire call. Qatar mediated the initial truce, with US envoy Steve Witkoff confirming Iran's compliance via a Doha statement on May 13. Oil prices dropped 8% on the news, from $92 to $84 per barrel. No violations reported as of May 16. ### 3/ Why mention Pakistan now? The outpost attack On May 14, militants attacked a Pakistani military outpost in North Waziristan, killing 22 soldiers and wounding 15. The Pakistani army blamed Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which claimed responsibility citing drone strikes in Afghanistan. This is the deadliest single attack on Pakistani forces since March 2025's 18-kill raid in Bajaur. Pakistan responded with artillery into Afghanistan, where TTP maintains bases. ### 4/ Link to Afghanistan ceasefire Pakistan views the US-Iran truce as leverage against TTP, which uses Iranian border routes for arms, per Islamabad sources. The February 2026 US-Taliban-Pakistan Doha accord paused cross-border strikes for 90 days, set to expire June 1. Analyst Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center said the outpost assault "directly threatens" the Afghanistan deal: "Pakistan needs US pressure on Iran to seal its western flank, or TTP gains breathing room." Renewed violence could spike refugee flows into Pakistan, already hosting 1.4 million Afghans. ### 5/ India's reaction: Questions on US neutrality Indian officials questioned Trump's phrasing, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal asking if it signals "preferential treatment" for Pakistan amid shared US-Iran tensions. New Delhi imports 85% of its oil from the Gulf, unaffected by the ceasefire but wary of Pakistan's gains. This echoes 2019, when Trump halted F-16 sales to Pakistan over India concerns. BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad tweeted: "Ceasefire as 'favour' undermines Quad credibility." ### 6/ Regional ripple effects Iran's Araghchi hailed the truce but warned of "proxy provocations" via Pakistan. UAE, hosting US talks, pushed for Strait of Hormuz patrols starting May 17. China, Pakistan's ally, offered mediation on Afghanistan strikes. US State Department clarified: "Ceasefire stands on its merits, not bilateral favours," per spokesperson Matthew Miller on May 16. ### 7/ What's next? Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir meets US Central Command's Michael Kurilla in Tampa on May 20. Afghanistan truce review due June 1; TTP deadline for talks ends May 25. Oil markets watch Hormuz shipments, projected at 20 million bpd this week.
