Emerging markets holding up
Emerging markets have outperformed over the past year — the broad EM index is up roughly 12% as commodity demand and local resilience beat developed markets, though volatility is spiking in places like India where the Nifty has swung around 23,250 recently Emerging Markets: How Investors Are Responding To Shifting Global Paradigm | Seeking Alpha, Nifty 50 Rebounds Modestly to 23,250 as Markets Open Higher; Oil Shocks Linger | IBTimes. For investors that means higher return potential but also a need for tighter risk controls and currency hedging.
The MSCI Emerging Markets index has posted a one‑year gain of about 36.7% (MarketScreener’s 1‑year figure), while the iShares EEM ETF shows roughly a 32.9% one‑year rise — far above the single‑digit gap often cited between EM and developed peers. (marketscreener.com) Broad macro tailwinds named by major managers include broad-based central‑bank rate cuts and a weaker US dollar as key supports, according to Ashmore’s 2026 outlook. (ashmoregroup.com) Commodity and technology demand have been explicit cyclical drivers: GAM highlighted commodity and thematic catalysts for EM’s rebound, and Capital Group notes four of the five countries that represent about 80% of the MSCI EM index are forecast to post double‑digit profit growth. (gam.com) India’s benchmark has been a volatility flashpoint — press reports showed the Nifty trading around the 23,250 area amid oil‑price jitters and geopolitical tensions, and official exchange data recorded a close near 23,151 on March 13, 2026. (ibtimes.com) Currency markets are adding risk: Bloomberg reported emerging‑market options priced in rising near‑term downside for EM currencies on March 12, 2026, while analysts have flagged rising currency‑hedging costs after several EM currencies fell earlier in the cycle. (bloomberg.com) Macro prudence flags remain — the IMF’s October 14, 2025 Global Financial Stability Report warned stretched valuations and elevated stability risks, and short‑term volatility metrics on MSCI EM have climbed into the high‑20s percent range. (imf.org) Asset managers such as GAM and Ashmore frame 2025 as the start of an EM resurgence but explicitly recommend active risk controls and selective hedging as volatility and regional dispersion rise. (gam.com)
