US–China fight hits SEA
- Analysts say U.S.–China tariff negotiations will ripple most sharply through Southeast Asia's manufacturing and transhipment networks. - The ORF analysis highlights transhipment and deep supply‑chain interdependence as the main channels of exposure. - That implies regional firms may need to recalibrate sourcing, logistics and trade strategies as U.S. policy shifts (orfonline.org).
Southeast Asia is where a U.S.–China tariff fight lands hardest: in the factories, ports and customs paperwork that connect Chinese inputs to American buyers. (orfonline.org) In an April 23, 2026 analysis, the Observer Research Foundation said the main pressure points are transshipment — rerouting goods through a third country — and supply chains that still rely heavily on Chinese parts. (orfonline.org) That risk is not abstract. Vietnam was hit with a threatened 46% U.S. “reciprocal” tariff on April 2, 2025, then moved to crack down on illegal transshipment of Chinese goods as talks with Washington opened. (thediplomat.com) By July 2, 2025, President Donald Trump said the United States had struck a deal with Vietnam that set a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on “transshipping,” a direct shot at goods rerouted to dodge China duties. (cnbc.com) The squeeze comes from simple math: ASEAN’s two-way merchandise trade with China reached $772.4 billion in 2024, equal to 20.1% of the bloc’s total trade, while China’s foreign direct investment into ASEAN totaled $19.3 billion. (asean.org) Vietnam shows how tightly the links run. Reuters reported that in April 2025, Vietnam’s imports from China and its exports to the United States both hit post-pandemic records at the same time Washington was pressing Hanoi over origin fraud. (straitstimes.com) That leaves Southeast Asian manufacturers exposed even when they are not simple pass-through hubs. A product assembled in Vietnam, Malaysia or Thailand can still depend on Chinese components, making its tariff status vulnerable if U.S. rules of origin tighten. (orfonline.org; thediplomat.com) Analysts in the region say the next fight is likely to move from headline tariff rates to proof of where value is actually created. That means more scrutiny of certificates of origin, local-content thresholds and customs enforcement across ASEAN ports and export zones. (channelnewsasia.com; spglobal.com) For companies in Southeast Asia, the adjustment is operational before it is diplomatic: source more parts locally, document every production step, and assume U.S. customs will ask harder questions. (orfonline.org; aseanbriefing.com)
