Groceries easing, menus still rising
Grocery prices ticked down 0.2% in March while restaurant prices rose 0.2% for the month, and menu prices are up about 3.8% year‑over‑year — so your supermarket bill may feel lighter but eating out is still getting pricier. For diners and restaurateurs that split means grocery relief isn't yet translating to cheaper nights out. (usinflationcalculator.com) (nrn.com)
One part of the inflation report got easier in March and another kept climbing: grocery prices fell 0.2% from February, while food away from home rose 0.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10, 2026. (bls.gov) That split means the same carton of eggs or bag of rice can be getting cheaper at the store while the omelet or burrito made from it still costs more at the table. The government tracks those as two different buckets: “food at home” for groceries and “food away from home” for restaurants. (bls.gov) Restaurant prices also keep rising faster over a full year than grocery prices. Menu prices were up 3.8% from March 2025, while the grocery index was up 2.4% year over year. (nrn.com) (bls.gov) Inside restaurants, the pressure is stronger in sit-down dining than in quick service. Nation’s Restaurant News reported full-service prices rose 0.3% in March and were up 4.1% over 12 months, while limited-service prices rose 0.2% in March and 3.4% over the year. (nrn.com) The reason grocery relief does not instantly show up on menus is that a restaurant bill is not mostly raw ingredients. Operators also pay cooks, servers, rent, utilities, insurance, packaging, and credit-card processing, and the National Restaurant Association said “persistent cost pressures” are still shaping 2026. (restaurant.org) The industry is still huge, but margins are thin enough that small cost increases matter. The National Restaurant Association projects $1.55 trillion in restaurant and foodservice sales in 2026, with only 1.3% real growth after inflation. (restaurant.org) March’s grocery dip also does not mean every aisle got cheaper. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the overall food index was flat for the month because the grocery decline was offset by restaurant increases, which is why shoppers can notice some relief without seeing a lower total inflation rate for food. (bls.gov) And the broader inflation backdrop was moving the wrong way at the same time. The overall Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% over 12 months, with gasoline up 21.2% in the month and accounting for nearly three quarters of the monthly all-items increase. (bls.gov) So the March numbers describe two different errands in the same week. The supermarket run got a little lighter, but the night out still got a little heavier, and for many households that difference now shows up every month. (bls.gov) (nrn.com)
