Fed cuts off the table — for now
Markets have largely abandoned hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts as sticky inflation and recent geopolitical energy shocks push the earliest expected easing to June, with the Fed widely expected to hold at 3.50%–3.75% next week reported. Mortgage rates jumped to a one-month high this week, adding near-term pressure to real-estate transactions and interest-rate sensitive M&A reported.
CME FedWatch shows roughly a 99% probability the Fed will hold at the March meeting (March 18), [techflowpost.com] and market-implied paths now assign only about a one-in-three chance of a 25‑bp cut by the June 17 meeting. [rateprobability.com] Barclays on March 13 moved its call for the Fed’s first 2026 cut to September from June, citing higher energy and inflation risks, [msn.com] and Goldman Sachs has likewise shifted its timing toward a later cut in 2026. [seekingalpha.com] The benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield rose to about 4.28% on March 13 as oil and risk premia climbed, pressuring long‑term rates, [advisorperspectives.com] while Freddie Mac reported the 30‑year fixed mortgage averaged 6.11% for the week ending March 12 and Mortgage News Daily put the 30‑year coupon near 6.41% on March 13. [freddiemac.com] Deal financing is already adjusting: Bloomberg reported private‑credit lenders loosening protections to win business with “cov‑lite” terms in early 2026, [bloomberg.com] even as Baker McKenzie data show high‑yield issuance topped about $325 billion in 2025—figures deal teams will weigh when modeling leverage and refinancing risk. [bakermckenzie.com]
