NOAA begins early hurricane tracking

The National Hurricane Center resumed regular Atlantic tropical weather outlooks on May 15, 2026, about two weeks before the official start of hurricane season on June 1. NOAA has also rolled out updated hurricane graphics for the 2026 season that add inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings to the forecast cone. At the same time, NOAA climate forecasters said El Niño is likely to emerge soon, a development that can affect Atlantic storm activity and rainfall patterns along the Gulf Coast. The changes put new attention on how emergency managers, utilities and businesses prepare before the first storm forms. ### Why did NOAA start issuing Atlantic outlooks before June 1? May 15 is the date when the National Hurricane Center resumes routine issuance of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, according to the agency’s archived notices and current outlook page. The outlook covers the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, and gives two-day and seven-day formation probabilities for disturbances that could become tropical cyclones. The June 1 to November 30 Atlantic season has not changed. NOAA said in a media advisory that it will release its full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21 at the agency’s Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida. ### What changed in the hurricane forecast cone for 2026? The National Hurricane Center said its 2026 operational cone graphic will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas, not only coastal sections. NOAA said the change follows an experimental phase that showed inland communities could better understand wind risk from tropical cyclones. A separate 2026 products update said the cone graphic will be posted with full and intermediate advisories on hurricanes.gov. In rare cases, NOAA said, a preliminary cone showing only coastal U.S. watches and warnings may appear first until inland warning information is available. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing an experimental cone graphic this season that uses a different methodology to create the error cone. NOAA said that product is experimental and distinct from the operational cone used in public advisories. ### What is NOAA saying about El Niño right now? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that El Niño is likely to emerge soon, assigning it an 82% chance during May-July 2026. The same discussion said El Niño is expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27, with a 96% chance in December through February. Last month’s NOAA discussion had put the chance of El Niño emerging in May-July at 61%. The increase in that probability over one month is one reason forecasters and local officials are watching Pacific conditions more closely heading into summer. ### How can El Niño affect the Atlantic and Gulf Coast? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has long tied El Niño to changes in atmospheric conditions that can suppress some Atlantic hurricane activity, though the agency’s seasonal hurricane outlook has not yet been released for 2026. The same Pacific pattern can also influence rainfall across parts of the southern United States, including Gulf Coast states, depending on timing and strength. The National Hurricane Center said Sunday that there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. That leaves the current focus on preseason planning rather than an active storm threat. ### What are officials and businesses doing before the season starts? Utilities, hospitals, local governments and large employers typically use the preseason window to test backup power, review communications plans and update response playbooks. NOAA’s early routine outlooks and expanded warning graphics give those groups more time to align decisions across coastal and inland sites before watches or warnings are posted. Texas and other inland-prone states have drawn attention because tropical cyclone wind and flooding hazards can extend far from the coast. NOAA’s updated cone is designed to show more of that official warning information in one graphic. ### What happens next? May 21 is the next major date on NOAA’s calendar. The agency said its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be announced in Lakeland, Florida, by forecasters and preparedness officials before the season begins on June 1.