Commodities on edge
Commodity markets are volatile: Brent briefly topped $110 on Hormuz fears and traders are pricing oil in an $88–$120 range amid stagflation concerns (x.com). At the same time gold plunged ~7% in its biggest weekly drop in six years while copper is holding a breakout; fertilizer shocks threaten up to 50% grain‑yield losses and VLCC freight rates peaked near $424k/day, a sign of shipping stress (x.com)(x.com).
Barclays warned a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could remove 13–14 million barrels per day from global oil supply — roughly 12–13% of the IEA’s 2026 demand estimate of about 104–105 million bpd. (uk.finance.yahoo.com) (iea.blob.core.windows.net) Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings surged to record levels, with the benchmark Middle East‑to‑China route reported at about $423,736–$424,000 per day, according to Baltic Exchange data cited by Bloomberg. (bloomberg.com) (eia.gov) Gold was on track for its largest weekly loss in years as bullion fell more than 7% in a week amid a rally in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and Bloomberg recorded ETF outflows of more than 60 tonnes over that selling period. (bloomberg.com) Copper’s melt‑up earlier this year produced an intraday LME record of $14,527.50 per tonne on Jan. 29, 2026, after a 2025 rally of roughly 44%, but prices have since retreated — trading around the low $11,000s–$12,000s per tonne in March amid demand and macro concerns. (source.benchmarkminerals.com) (tradingeconomics.com) Goldman Sachs’ commodities note flagged that disruptions to nitrogen fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce global grain yields and prompt planting shifts — the bank warned a quarter of global nitrogen trade and about 20% of LNG shipments transit the chokepoint. (producer.com) (openknowledge.fao.org) Barclays’ scenario work shows market pricing is already conditional: its base case assumes traffic normalises by early April with Brent averaging $85/b in 2026, but it said persistent disruption through end‑April could repricing Brent forwards to $100/b and a prolonged end‑May disruption could push forwards to $110/b — a range traders are using to model stagflation risks. (uk.finance.yahoo.com) (bloomberg.com)
