Oil spike, central banks cautious
Energy shocks from the Gulf have pushed Brent toward $102 and WTI around $95, keeping markets skittish about supply and inflation. Central banks are responding with caution — the Fed left rates unchanged this week and signaled deep uncertainty as higher fuel costs clash with a weakening labor market. (polyestertime.com) (reuters.com) (nytimes.com)
Brent and U.S. crude rose sharply midweek, with Brent futures settling at $107.38 per barrel and WTI near $96.32 on March 18 after attacks on Gulf energy sites. (nst.com.my) The gap between Brent and WTI widened to its largest in about 11 years, prompting traders and refiners to push more U.S. crude into export channels to arbitrage the discount. (msn.com) The International Energy Agency said on March 11 that its 32 member countries agreed to a coordinated release of up to 400 million barrels from emergency stocks to offset Middle East supply disruptions. (iea.org) The United States committed 172 million barrels to that collective release, and the Energy Department has initiated an emergency exchange for an initial tranche of up to 86 million barrels to start deliveries. (politico.com) The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate in a 3.50%–3.75% range at its March meeting, with the FOMC reportedly voting 11-1 to hold and flagging uncertainty from the Middle East shock. (cnbc.com) Fed officials nevertheless kept projections that one rate cut could come later in 2026 even as they warned the war’s inflationary effects were uncertain. (bloomberg.com) The Bank of England unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% and said it “stands ready to act” if the conflict pushes inflation higher, while the European Central Bank likewise signalled patience as it weighs energy-driven upside risks. (money.usnews.com)
