Home Depot eyes $164.7B 2026

Home Depot’s latest quarter was good enough to calm people down, but not clean enough to settle the bigger argument. The company beat Wall Street’s fourth-quarter EPS estimate on February 24, 2026, and posted record fiscal 2025 sales of $164.7 billion. But the real debate moved straight to fiscal 2026 — how much growth Home Depot can squeeze out of a housing market that still looks stuck. ### What actually changed? The immediate news was the earnings beat. Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS came in at $2.72, above the $2.52 consensus, while revenue was $38.2 billion. That revenue number was down from a year earlier, but the comparison was distorted because fiscal 2024 had an extra 14th week that added about $2.5 billion in sales and about $0.30 in diluted EPS. Comparable sales still edged up 0.4%, with U.S. comps up 0.3%. (ir.homedepot.com) ### Why does $164.7 billion matter? Because it tells you Home Depot is still growing even without a healthy housing backdrop. Fiscal 2025 sales rose 3.2% to $164.7 billion, while comparable sales were basically flat at 0.3%. Net earnings fell to $14.2 billion from $14.8 billion, and diluted EPS slipped to $14.23 from $14.91. So this was not a booming year. It was a year where the company kept moving forward anyway. (ir.homedepot.com) ### So why are people talking about 2026 instead? Because that is where the disagreement is. Back in December, Home Depot laid out a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook calling for total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales from flat to up 2%, and diluted EPS growth from flat to up 4%. That is a pretty modest setup — basically a “better, not booming” scenario. (ir.homedepot.com) ### What are analysts modeling now? The current sell-side consensus is a little more upbeat on sales than the headline $164.7 billion figure floating around older writeups. MarketScreener shows fiscal 2026 net sales expectations at about $171.2 billion. Yahoo Finance shows a very similar $171.19 billion revenue estimate and about $15.05 in EPS for the current fiscal year. In other words, analysts broadly expect growth, but not a dramatic snapback. (corporate.homedepot.com) ### Why the gap between sales and profit? Because Home Depot can still ring up business without getting much operating leverage. The company’s own preliminary 2026 outlook pointed to operating margin of roughly 12.4% to 12.6%, a touch below the prior year’s level. Analysts also model lower net margin in 2026 than in earlier years. That means more sales do not automatically turn into sharply higher earnings — especially when financing costs, wage pressure, and mix all matter. (marketscreener.com) ### What is still supporting demand? Small projects, repairs, and the professional customer. Home Depot has been leaning hard into the “win the pro” strategy, and the company keeps arguing that its investments in stores, delivery, and interconnected retail are helping it take share even in a soft market. Basically, people may delay moving or remodeling the whole kitchen, but they still fix roofs, replace water heaters, and keep properties running. (corporate.homedepot.com) ### What’s the catch? A frozen housing market can last longer than investors want. If turnover stays weak and consumers stay cautious, Home Depot may keep posting this same pattern — stable demand, okay comps, and only moderate earnings growth. That is fine for a resilient retailer. It is less exciting for anyone waiting for a housing-driven surge. ### Bottom line? (corporate.homedepot.com) The story is not that Home Depot suddenly broke out. It is that the company is still growing through a bad setup. Fiscal 2025 got it to $164.7 billion in sales. Fiscal 2026 is now about whether that resilience can stretch to roughly $171 billion without a real housing recovery. (ir.homedepot.com)