Trump says he expects a ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz to reopen next week

President Donald Trump said Monday he expects an agreement with Iran “over the next week” to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to ABC News. The remarks came days after Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had reached a draft understanding for a 60-day extension, pending Trump’s approval. The proposed arrangement would also lift restrictions on shipping through the waterway, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Polymarket data on Monday showed traders still assigned only a 22% chance to a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal by June 30. ### What exactly did Trump say on June 1? ABC News reported on June 1 that Trump told chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl he thought a deal could happen “over the next week.” ABC said Trump described the outlook as “Looking good, looking good.” Monday’s comments followed earlier public statements from Trump that a broader Iran agreement had been “largely negotiated,” though he had also said final details were still being discussed. ABC reported separately in recent weeks that Trump had publicly downplayed the disruption tied to the conflict as “a little glitch.” (yahoo.com) ### What deal is already on the table? Reuters reported on May 28 that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement in principle to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, according to sources familiar with the matter. The same report said the draft would lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiators addressed harder issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. (abc.net.au) Four sources told Reuters that Trump had not yet approved the memorandum of understanding, and Iranian state media said at the time that the arrangement had not been finalized. Reuters said the draft, if accepted in Washington and Tehran, would mark the biggest step toward a broader settlement since the conflict began on February 28. (usnews.com) ### Why does the Strait of Hormuz keep appearing in every version of this story? The Strait of Hormuz is central to the current talks because the draft understanding described by Reuters would restore shipping through the passage as part of the ceasefire extension. Recent coverage from Reuters and other outlets has treated the reopening of Hormuz as one of the clearest operational pieces of any interim arrangement. (usnews.com) ABC News reported in March that Trump had argued other countries could help police the waterway, underscoring how the administration has tied the shipping issue to broader burden-sharing and negotiations with Tehran. ### Why are prediction markets still showing skepticism? Polymarket’s June 30 contract for a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal was trading at 22% on June 1, according to the site’s market page. (usnews.com) The same page showed much higher implied odds for later deadlines, including 37% for July 31 and 71% for December 31, indicating traders saw a permanent settlement as less likely in the near term than a temporary arrangement. (abcnews.com) The Polymarket rules distinguish a “permanent peace deal” from temporary agreements, saying the market resolves “Yes” only if the two countries explicitly agree that hostilities have ended permanently or will permanently cease. That means a 60-day ceasefire extension would not, by itself, satisfy the June 30 permanent-deal contract. ### What should readers watch next? (polymarket.com) Washington and Tehran are the named parties to the reported memorandum, and Reuters said both governments still need to sign off before the ceasefire extension and Hormuz reopening take effect. ABC’s June 1 report indicates Trump is now publicly signaling that approval could come within days. (polymarket.com) The next concrete developments are likely to be an official announcement from the White House or Iranian authorities, plus confirmation that commercial traffic is again moving normally through the Strait of Hormuz under the terms of any 60-day deal. (usnews.com)