China cool to Trump summit

The thing to understand about this Trump-Xi meeting is that it is not really a “reset” summit. It is a stress-management summit. Trump is due in Beijing on May 14-15, his first China trip in eight years, but the basic relationship is still defined by tariffs, strategic mistrust, and a global economy getting knocked around by other crises too. So the real story is less “what grand bargain might emerge?” and more “how much instability can both sides keep contained?” (thediplomat.com) ### Why are expectations so low? Because both governments have already learned the hard part — leader-level contact can pause escalation, but it does not fix the structure underneath. Trump and Xi met in Busan in October 2025 and agreed to a one-year truce meant to stabilize economic ties after a brutal tariff cycle. That helped cool things down. But it did no(thediplomat.com)meeting starts from a very narrow goal: keep competition from turning chaotic. (weforum.org) ### What is Trump actually bringing to Beijing? A lot of noise, but not a clean negotiating position. Trump’s trade strategy has leaned heavily on tariffs, yet one of the main legal tools behind that strategy got badly damaged in court. On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the “fentanyl” tariffs on goods from C(weforum.org)ry the administration used. That matters because tariffs are supposed to be Trump’s leverage, and now some of that leverage looks legally shaky. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) ### So were those tariffs killed? Not cleanly. That is the catch. The administration appealed almost immediately, and the Federal Circuit issued an administrative stay while it considered the case. In plain English — the trial court said the tariffs were invalid, but collect(tradecomplianceresourcehub.com)e legal foundation under part of the tariff wall is still being contested. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) ### Why does that matter for China? Because Beijing can see the difference between pressure and durable policy. A tariff threat is more useful in a negotiation when the other side believes it will stick. But if the policy is tied up in court, under appeal, and potentially su(tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) to treat this summit as the place where the long-term rules will be set. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) ### What does Beijing want from the meeting? Mostly predictability. Not friendship — just fewer surprises. The wider backdrop has gotten worse, not better. The Iran conflict and energy-market disruption have added another layer of volatility to an already tense U.S.-China re(tradecomplianceresourcehub.com)g. But that is different from solving the dispute. (thediplomat.com) ### Is there room for actual cooperation? Some, but it is the low-level, practical kind. Think supply-chain management, business channels, and technical coordination where both sides have something to lose from disorder. The bigger fights — industrial policy, export controls, Taiwan, security alignment — are still there. That is why outside analysts keep describing this as a summit about managing competition under pressure, not ending it. (thediplomat.com) ### Why does the legal backdrop matter so much? Because it changes the tone of the whole trip. If Trump arrived with a settled tariff regime, he could frame the visit as a test of whether China would make concessions. Instead, he arrives with part of his tariff architecture still under judicial review and with other tariff tools, like Section 122 measures, als(thediplomat.com)d. Beijing notices both halves. (tradecomplianceresourcehub.com) ### Bottom line This meeting matters, but mainly as a guardrail. Trump and Xi can still lower the temperature. They probably cannot produce much substance. Right now the relationship is being held together less by trust than by mutual recognition that a messy break would cost too much. (thediplomat.com)