Matcha shortage risks

GlobalData said a global matcha shortage is increasing the risk that counterfeit and low-quality products will spread as authentic supply tightens. (globaldata.com) The shortage starts in Japan, where matcha is made from tencha, a shade-grown tea leaf that is dried and stone-ground into powder. Reuters reported in July 2025 that heat stress cut yields in Kyoto, a key producing region. (asahi.com) Kyoto accounts for about a quarter of Japan’s tencha production, according to Reuters, and weak April-May harvests pushed prices to records. At a Kyoto auction, tencha averaged 8,235 yen per kilogram, about 170% above a year earlier. (asahi.com) (interaksyon.philstar.com) Demand kept climbing at the same time. Japan’s green tea exports, including matcha, rose 25% by value to 36.4 billion yen in 2024, with export volume up 16%, according to Japan’s agriculture ministry data cited by Reuters. (asahi.com) That combination creates room for substitution. When authentic matcha gets expensive or scarce, sellers can blend in lower-grade powders, misstate origin, or market ordinary green tea powder as ceremonial matcha. (globaldata.com) (time.com) The supply problem is not easy to fix quickly. New tea fields take years to mature, and Reuters reported farmers may need about five years before new plantings can produce tencha at commercial scale. (interaksyon.philstar.com) GlobalData’s argument is that tighter labeling and regulation matter more in that environment. The firm said clearer provenance, grade disclosure, and stronger checks on authenticity would help protect consumers and brands as shortages persist. (globaldata.com) For buyers, the practical check is whether a seller names the region, harvest, producer, and grade instead of relying on vague “premium” claims. In a market with record prices and limited stock, the brightest green tin is not always the real thing. (globaldata.com) (asahi.com)