China’s exports cooled in March

China’s export growth slowed to 2.5% in March, a five-month low, after a much faster start to 2026. China’s General Administration of Customs said exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier in United States dollar terms, down from 21.8% growth in January and February combined. Imports jumped 27.8%, leaving a March trade surplus of $51.13 billion. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected March exports to rise 8.6%, so the actual figure missed forecasts by a wide margin. Reuters said the March data was the first test of whether demand for artificial intelligence chips and servers could offset the shock from the war in Iran. The link runs through shipping and fuel. Reuters said the conflict in Iran drove up energy and transport costs, while reporting from South China Morning Post said disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up transport, commodity and energy prices. March also came with awkward comparisons. Bloomberg said seasonal distortions around the Lunar New Year and a high base from March 2025 likely made the slowdown look steeper, while Reuters-linked reports said factories had rushed shipments a year earlier ahead of President Donald Trump’s April 2, 2025 tariff deadline. The weak headline does not mean tech demand disappeared. Reuters-linked reports said South Korea’s exports to China rose 62.4% in March, led by a 151.4% jump in semiconductor shipments as memory prices rose and demand for artificial intelligence servers stayed strong. That split fits a broader pattern in China’s economy. CNBC said trade has remained a main support for growth, and Reuters polling published on April 13 showed economists expected first-quarter growth to firm before slowing later in 2026 as the Middle East crisis squeezed profits and overseas demand. For now, March shows China still selling more abroad, but at a pace much closer to stall speed than the first two months suggested. The next trade releases will show whether March was mostly a calendar effect or the start of a longer export slowdown.