Tesla Q1 delivery pulse
Tesla is forecast to deliver roughly 365,000 vehicles in Q1 — about an 8% year‑over‑year uptick — signaling only a modest rebound for the automaker (benzinga.com). Its energy storage business is running hot — on pace for ~14.4 GWh in Q1 — and Tesla’s Terafab push and doubled AI training compute are getting investor attention ahead of earnings ( ).
Tesla’s investor-relations release shows the company compiled estimates from 23 sell‑side firms and published the full list of contributors including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and UBS. (ir.tesla.com) Those sell‑side benchmarks sit well below Q4‑2025’s haul of 418,227 vehicles, meaning the consensus would represent a double‑digit sequential decline versus the holiday quarter. (ir.tesla.com) Analysts in the same company‑compiled table expect storage deployments to outpace Q4’s then‑record quarter of 14.2 GWh, and Tesla’s 2025 full‑year storage deployments totaled 46.7 GWh — underscoring energy as the fastest‑growing revenue segment. (businesswire.com) Elon Musk formally unveiled the Terafab initiative in Austin in late March as a joint Tesla–SpaceX push to build in‑house AI/robotics chips, with media estimates putting the program’s initial capital scope in the $20–25 billion range and production targets discussed in the hundreds of billions of chips annually. (bloomberg.com) Separately, Tesla is ramping its training infrastructure at Giga Texas — regulator filings, shareholder notes and industry reporting point to a planned Cortex‑2 supercluster expansion (hundreds of megawatts scale) and a near‑term jump in training capacity that industry trackers say will more than double in the first half of 2026. (cleantechnica.com) Markets are pricing a wide range of outcomes: prediction markets place the most‑likely Q1 delivery bracket below 350,000 vehicles (roughly 60–63% implied probability) while several banks have trimmed forecasts, and short‑term stock moves have reacted to the Terafab/energy headlines with intraday rallies of several percentage points. (automotiveworld.com)
