Hormuz + Bab el‑Mandeb Threat
The Middle East conflict is now risking both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb, constricting oil flows and sending Brent and global fuel prices higher as trade through Hormuz is reported to be “trickling.” (reuters.com) The disruption also threatens the global helium supply—Qatar supplies roughly a third of the market—which could produce fresh bottlenecks for semiconductor manufacturing already sensitive to supply shocks. (thehill.com)
S&P Global tracking shows just 21 tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict began on Feb. 28, compared with more than 100 daily before the war—an effective collapse in normal throughput. (cnbc.com: ) Kpler vessel-tracking data estimates tanker transits through Hormuz have fallen about 92% and reported 247 MR-size tankers stranded inside the Middle East Gulf and 984 vessels across the broader region—roughly 22% of the global fleet by count. (kpler.com: ) Major container lines including Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM have rerouted services around the Cape of Good Hope rather than risk Bab el‑Mandeb transits, increasing voyage distances. (rte.ie: ) Detours via the Cape add roughly ten days to some voyages and industry estimates put incremental fuel and insurance costs as high as $1 million per transit for large ships. (africa-eye.com: ) Bank of America raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $77.50 a barrel from $61, explicitly citing a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as the rationale. (marketscreener.com / Reuters: ) Brent traded around $104–$107 per barrel in late March 2026, roughly 40–46% above pre‑conflict levels, according to market data. (tradingeconomics.com: ) Qatar accounted for about 63 million cubic metres of helium in 2025 out of roughly 190 million cubic metres worldwide—close to one‑third of global supply—according to industry compilations of USGS data. (agbi.com: ) QatarEnergy suspended LNG (and associated helium) operations after Iranian drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed on March 2, 2026, removing that output from global markets. (cnbc.com: ) Chemical & Engineering News convened an industry panel that estimated the outage removed about one‑third of global helium and warned that if disruptions lasted more than two weeks, downstream shortages for users could last months. (cen.acs.org: ) Hardware and chip‑industry reporting shows fabs and suppliers—citing SK hynix among users—scrambling for alternate helium contracts as spot prices and short‑term container rates jumped by roughly 30–50% in mid‑March. (tomshardware.com: ) (thedeepdive.ca: )
