Labour market steady, hiring modest
- The U.S. labour market is described as 'low-fire, low-hire' with stable initial jobless claims. - Initial jobless claims are expected near a 13-week moving average of about 213,000. - That middle-ground labour market makes precise scheduling and overtime control more important for seasonal operators (realeconomy.rsmus.com)
U.S. layoffs are staying low even as hiring stays modest, leaving the labor market stable but harder to break into for people looking for a new job. (dol.gov) The Labor Department said seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were 213,000 in the week ended March 7, 2026, down 1,000 from the prior week. The four-week average was 212,000, and the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%. (dol.gov) The broader jobs report for March showed payrolls rose by 178,000 and the unemployment rate held near 4.3%. Average weekly hours for all private workers edged down to 34.2, while leisure and hospitality hours slipped to 25.3 from 25.5 in February. (bls.gov, bls.gov) Hiring has cooled more than firing. In February, job openings were little changed, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed hires, quits and layoffs all moved little from January levels. (bls.gov) That mix leaves employers with enough workers to avoid broad layoffs, but not enough momentum to produce fast job switching or rapid wage gains. RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in February that hiring had stabilized “at a modest pace” after slowing sharply in late 2025. (realeconomy.rsmus.com) It also changes how seasonal businesses manage labor. When claims are steady and hours are flat, retailers, restaurants and hotels often lean harder on shift planning, overtime limits and part-time staffing instead of large hiring pushes. (bls.gov, bls.gov, realeconomy.rsmus.com) The pattern is visible in service industries with variable schedules. In March, retail workers averaged 30.0 hours a week, transportation and warehousing workers averaged 38.4 hours, and leisure and hospitality workers averaged 25.3 hours, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. (bls.gov) For workers, a steady claims number is better than a spike in layoffs, but it does not mean the market feels strong. With openings, hires and quits all moving sideways, people who lose a job or want a better one can face longer searches than they did during the post-pandemic hiring boom. (dol.gov, bls.gov, realeconomy.rsmus.com) The next weekly claims report will show whether that balance is still holding, but the latest federal data point to the same picture: employers are not cutting deeply, and they are not adding quickly either. (fred.stlouisfed.org, dol.gov)
