New Australian Polls Show Labor Ahead Despite Coalition Gains

Recent polling quantifies the shifts in the Australian federal political landscape. A late February Roy Morgan poll places Labor's primary vote at 31%, with the Coalition at 24% and One Nation at 20.5%. An earlier Essential poll showed Labor at 30%, the Coalition at 26%, and One Nation at 22%. The surge for Pauline Hanson's One Nation party is a significant factor, with its primary vote jumping from 6.4% in the May 2025 federal election to over 20% in multiple recent polls. One Essential poll revealed that 58% of Australians are open to voting for One Nation, a figure that includes 51% of Coalition voters and 33% of Labor voters. The Coalition's modest recovery in polls coincides with a recent change in the Liberal Party leadership to Angus Taylor. Polling conducted immediately after the leadership change suggests the move helped stanch the flow of voters to One Nation, registering a slight swing back to the Coalition. Under Australia's preferential voting system, the flow of second-preference votes is critical. At the 2025 election, One Nation's preferences flowed heavily to the Coalition at a rate of 74.5%, a substantial increase from previous elections. This dynamic makes the Coalition's ability to win back One Nation voters—or at least secure their preferences—a crucial element of their election strategy. This realignment is occurring against a backdrop of broad voter dissatisfaction. The cost of living remains the dominant issue for the electorate. A Roy Morgan poll from early February found that a majority of Australians, 56.5%, believe the country is "going in the wrong direction." A looming test of these polling dynamics will be the South Australian state election on March 21. Polling in that state has shown a dramatic collapse in the Liberal primary vote and a significant surge for One Nation, providing a real-world test of whether this voter sentiment translates into actual election results.