Energy shock numbers

The oil shock is no longer just a crude-market story: supply losses in March and April have pushed up gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices across the economy. (iea.org, eia.gov) The International Energy Agency said global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels a day in March, the biggest disruption on record, as attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz cut flows. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28. (iea.org, eia.gov) The Energy Information Administration estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain shut in 7.5 million barrels a day in March and 9.1 million barrels a day in April. At that April pace, a month of lost output is roughly 273 million barrels, which helps explain analyst estimates that cumulative disrupted supply has climbed into the hundreds of millions of barrels. (eia.gov, economictimes.indiatimes.com) Crude is only the starting point. Refineries turn crude into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and the International Energy Agency said April refinery runs in the Middle East and Asia were cut by about 6 million barrels a day as feedstock shortages and infrastructure damage tightened product markets. (iea.org) That squeeze is already visible in U.S. pump prices. The national average for regular gasoline was $4.123 a gallon on April 13, up from $3.990 on March 30, while on-highway diesel was $5.608 a gallon. (eia.gov) Federal forecasters now expect U.S. retail gasoline to average $3.70 a gallon in 2026, up from $3.10 in 2025, and they expect Brent crude to average $96 a barrel this year versus $69 last year. The same April outlook said the March Brent average hit $103 a barrel and daily prices reached almost $128 on April 2. (eia.gov, eia.gov) Jet fuel has become the clearest pressure point for travel. The International Air Transport Association said on April 17 that flight cancellations in Europe could start by the end of May for lack of jet fuel, and said shortages were already happening in parts of Asia. (iata.org) European airport operators have issued the same warning from the ground side. Airports Council International Europe told the European Union that if passage through Hormuz does not resume in a significant and stable way within three weeks, a “systemic jet fuel shortage” could become reality in the bloc. (cnbc.com) The International Energy Agency said oil demand is now expected to contract by 80,000 barrels a day in 2026, reversing earlier growth expectations, as higher prices and scarcity spread from the Middle East into Asia Pacific and beyond. Its April report said the sharpest early cuts in fuel use were in naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel. (iea.org) The Energy Information Administration still assumes flows through Hormuz gradually resume and shut-ins ease later this year, but it also said disruptions could continue through late 2026 and keep a risk premium in oil prices. Until that changes, the energy shock is feeding directly into freight bills, airline costs and household fuel budgets. (eia.gov, npr.org)