Odds still favor favorites

Oddsmakers still have the higher seed favored in seven of the National Basketball Association’s eight first-round series, even after the opening weekend produced a few jolts. (nytimes.com) The Athletic reported on April 21 that New York and Denver remained series favorites after each dropped a home game. Houston against the Los Angeles Lakers was the only matchup in which the lower seed was still favored. (nytimes.com) That split shows how series betting works: sportsbooks price the full best-of-seven matchup, not just the last result. A higher seed can lose Game 1 and still be favored if bettors and bookmakers think its roster, home-court edge, and path over four to seven games still rate better. (vegasinsider.com ) The bracket itself helps explain the market’s lean. The first round began April 18, and the higher seed opened at home in every series under the National Basketball Association’s 2-2-1-1-1 format. (cbssports.com) Results through the first wave of games did not fully flip that structure. Vegas Insider listed favorites at 6-2 straight up and home teams at 7-1 straight up in first-round games, even with a pair of early upsets on the board. (vegasinsider.com) The Lakers-Rockets exception came with a clear caveat. The Athletic described Houston as favored against an injured Lakers team, making health — not just seeding — the biggest reason that series broke from the rest of the board. (nytimes.com) Elsewhere, the market stayed closest to the standings. Fox Sports listed Detroit over Orlando, Boston over Philadelphia, Cleveland over Toronto, Oklahoma City over Phoenix, San Antonio over Portland, and Denver over Minnesota as series favorites as of April 20. (foxsports.com) That leaves the early playoff story in a narrow lane: one or two surprising nights changed scores, but not most series prices. Until more games are played, sportsbooks are still pricing the bracket much closer to the seeds than to the shocks. (nytimes.com)