Freight and energy risk rises

Iran’s seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz this week is pushing freight routes and energy markets back into crisis mode. (cnbc.com) Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Wednesday, April 22, that it had seized two container ships and moved them to Iranian shores after three cargo vessels were attacked in the waterway. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said one vessel was fired on about 8 nautical miles off Iran’s coast and another attack was reported roughly 15 miles northeast of Oman. (cnbc.com) By Thursday, April 23, ship traffic through Hormuz had nearly stopped. Bloomberg reported that only one ship was seen moving through the corridor early Thursday and none were entering after the latest attacks. (bloomberg.com) The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman, and it carries an average 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products. The International Energy Agency says that volume made the strait one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints in 2025. (iea.org) The U.S. Energy Information Administration said flows through Hormuz in 2024 and early 2025 accounted for more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade. That leaves refiners, utilities and shipping lines exposed when insurers, carriers and navies start treating the route as an active war zone. (eia.gov) Europe is already preparing for another energy shock. On April 21, the Council of the European Union said threats from hostilities in Iran and the wider region had renewed concerns about the bloc’s reliance on imported fossil fuels and supply-chain vulnerabilities. (consilium.europa.eu) The European Commission has kept gas storage rules in place after the 2022 Russia supply shock, and it said storage sites provide about 30% of the European Union’s winter gas consumption. In its March 5, 2025 recommendation, the Commission also warned that Europe remained exposed to price volatility because liquefied natural gas now makes up a larger share of its energy mix. (eur-lex.europa.eu) For freight companies, the first hit is fuel and timing. Drewry said on April 16 that its World Container Index had just ended a six-week rally that was initially driven by higher bunker fuel prices after the late-February Middle East conflict. (drewry.co.uk) Drewry put the global index at $2,246 per 40-foot container on April 16, down 3% on the week, but said failed negotiations could still mean reduced schedule reliability, port omissions, longer lead times and renewed upward pressure on freight rates. Shanghai-to-Rotterdam spot rates were $2,229 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-Genoa stood at $3,343. (drewry.co.uk) Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude briefly moved above $100 a barrel on April 22 before easing back to $99.03, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $90.13, according to CNBC. (cnbc.com) Iran said the ships were seized over alleged maritime violations, while CNBC reported that the claim could not be independently verified. Shipping companies, European governments and energy buyers are now planning around the same risk they faced in earlier supply shocks: a critical route may stay open on paper but become too dangerous, too expensive or too slow to use normally. (cnbc.com)