Ship traffic still slow

Even with a two-week ceasefire in place, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still moving at a crawl, and one count cited in Friday coverage showed only 15 vessels had passed by 10 a.m. That is why airports and fuel buyers are acting like the crisis is still live, not over. (cnbc.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. In 2024, about 20 million barrels a day of oil moved through it, equal to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. (eia.gov) It is not just crude oil. The United States Energy Information Administration said about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through Hormuz in 2024, much of it from Qatar. (eia.gov) The ceasefire announced on Tuesday was supposed to let ships move again, but shipping companies still do not trust the route. CNBC reported that traffic had yet to show a meaningful rebound, with just four transits recorded on Wednesday by S&P Global Market Intelligence. (cnbc.com) Another reason traffic is slow is that the backlog is huge. CNBC said more than 400 oil tankers and dozens of liquefied natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas carriers were still anchored outside the Gulf waiting for a clearer signal to pass. (cnbc.com) The route itself has also changed. USNI News reported that Iran said on Thursday that ships now had to use two Tehran-controlled lanes because of mines in parts of the strait, and many transits were still going through what mariners have nicknamed the “Tehran Tollbooth.” (news.usni.org) That means “open” does not yet mean normal. Lloyd’s List data cited by USNI showed 15 transits on Tuesday before the deadline, then six on Wednesday and three on Thursday after the ceasefire announcement, which is the opposite of the surge traders were hoping for. (news.usni.org) Airports are worried because jet fuel works like a just-in-time supply chain with small buffers, especially before the summer rush. ACI Europe told the European Union on April 9 that if Hormuz does not resume “in any significant and stable way” within three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage in the European Union becomes likely. (cnbc.com) The price shock is already there. CNBC reported that jet fuel prices were up 103% month on month as of March, and the U.S. price roughly doubled from $2.50 a gallon on February 27 to $4.88 on April 2. (cnbc.com) So the story is not whether diplomats announced a pause on April 8. The story is that ships, insurers, and fuel buyers still see a narrow waterway with mines, ad hoc routing, and hundreds of waiting vessels, which is why flows are recovering in drips instead of waves. (cnbc.com)